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Week 5 is coming. If you’re reading this on Sunday, it’s here. We’re going to talk about it and help point you in the right direction to earn money and build those awesome lineups.
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Largest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite moneyline
Miami dolphins (+340) to Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10; -450)
Betting trends:
2021 Buccaneers home record: 2-0
2021 Buccaneers home record when favored: 2-0
2021 Buccaneers ATS Record: 1-3
2021 Buccaneers ATS record when favored: 1-3
2021 Dolphins road record: 1-1
2021 Dolphins road record as underdogs: 1-1
2021 ATS Dolphins Record: 2-2
2021 Dolphins ATS record as underdogs: 2-1
The Buccaneers are the biggest favorites on this list, followed closely by the Vikings (-425) hosting the Lions. After being primarily through the Patriots’ defense last week, the Bucs have another tough defensive clash ahead. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 21.1 points per game, which is the fourth lowest in the league. Opposing teams have found most of their success against the Dolphins on the pitch, but the Bucs rush the ball in just 29% of their plays, which is the second lowest in the league. The opposing full-backs are averaging 123 rushing yards per game (4.4 YPC) and five rushing touchdowns. That being said, Léonard Fournette ($ 5,200) comes out of a game where he carried the ball 20 times and saw five targets for 138 yards and 16.8 DKFP. His salary has also increased only slightly from last week, making him a potential lower tier option.
As for the options for success, it’s a tough week to go through Tom Brady ($ 7,400) as the second most expensive option. Although he didn’t see much pressure to start the season (24.6% loss), the Dolphins are in the League’s Top 10. Between the quality of their coins (65% receive rate, 11.1 YPR), Brady is not an option I’m looking to use. Chris Godwin ($ 6,300) will shoot the most favorable game among receivers against CB Justin Coleman. On cover, Coleman allowed an average of 13.2 YPR on 11 receptions and 12 targets. It also doesn’t matter that Coleman was used extensively as RCB in week 4 was used extensively as RCB in week 4 (61% of his shots), so if that continues that would be too an obstacle for Antonio Brown ($ 5,200) who leads the team in aDOT (average target distance) at 15.2.
Other notable favorites: Detroit Lions (+320) vs Minnesota Vikings (-9.5; -425), New England Patriots (-8.5; -380) to Houston Texans (+290)
Best DraftKings Sports Bets Projected total
New York Giants (+250) to Dallas Cowboys (-7; -320) Over / Under: 52.5
Betting trends:
2021 Giants road record: 1-1
Giants 2021 road record as underdogs: 1-1
2021 Giants Record Over / Under: 2-2
Giants Record Over / Under 2021 when Underdogs: 2-1
2021 Cowboys home record: 2-0
2021 Cowboys home record as favorites: 2-0
2021 Cowboys over / under record: 3-1
2021 Cowboys Record Over / Under as favorites: 2-0
Not many big totals on the board for week 5, with the highest projected at 52.5. The upper and lower lines show lines of -110, but this fell from 49 points over a week ago. Since then it has rebounded between 52 and 52.5. Those teams have combined to come up with a 5-3 record this season, with the Cowboys tied for the second best league record while covering an average of +3.1 points. In the Cowboys’ three games that have gone by, they have averaged 35.3 points. The Giants have averaged 28 points in the two games they have played, one of which was against the Saints last week.
Defense hasn’t really been a strong point for the Giants this season, who have allowed an average of 23.7 points per game in the first four weeks. While that puts them around the league average, they now face 31.5 points per game, the fourth best in the league. Dak Prescott ($ 6,900) threw for at least three touchdowns in three of his four games averaging 266 yards and an adjusted completion percentage of 79%. I can’t imagine he’s going to have much recoil from a defense that’s ranked near the bottom of the league passing the pressure. Prescott was phenomenal with a clean pocket, averaging 8.6 YPA, nine of his 10 passing touchdowns and an adjusted 83.2% completion.
Another notable total: Green Bay Packers (-3; -150) to Cincinnati Bengals (+130) O / U 50.5
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This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over / under.
Teams against spread:
Top ATS Teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4-0 | 12.4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-1 | 8.4 |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-1 | 6.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3-1 | 6 |
| Cleveland browns | 2-1 | 4.8 |
The worst ATS teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0-4 | -5.8 |
| Detroit Lions | 0-4 | -1.6 |
| Miami dolphins | 1-3 | -9.8 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-3 | -5.2 |
| Houston Texans | 1-3 | -1.4 |
Higher / lower team records:
Best team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-1 | 3.1 |
| Washington football team | 3-1 | 11 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-1 | 4.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2-2 | 3.6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 2-2 | 2.9 |
Worst team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| New England Patriots | 0-4 | -9.4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0-4 | -5.2 |
| Denver Broncos | 0-4 | -10.1 |
| New York Jets | 1-3 | -8.2 |
| Chicago Bear | 1-3 | -5.5 |
Target report
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 5 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 5 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
| Davante Adams | FR | CIN | 11.3 | 8.3 |
| Keenan Allen | LAKE | KEY | 11 | 6.7 |
| Dj moore | AUTO | RPS | 10.8 | 9.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | ARI | 10.8 | 11.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | BORN | HOU | 10.3 | 6 |
| Brandin cooks | HOU | BORN | 9.8 | 9.5 |
| Terry mclaurin | WAS | NO | 9.5 | 9.3 |
| Mike evans | TB | MIA | 9.3 | 7.6 |
| Justin jefferson | MIN | DET | 9.3 | 9.1 |
Quarterback to build around
Kirk cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $ 6,500 – Cousins ​​has seen very little change in his pay this season, despite averaging 22.4 DKFP, 280 passing yards and nine touchdowns. Now he’s one of the biggest favorites on the table and is the most expensive eighth quarterback on the table? Go now !
Cousins ​​has been favorite -10 or better eight times in his career and has averaged 19.5 DKFP in those games. The most recent event was against the Jaguars last year, where he lost 26.4 DKFP over them as a -10.5 favorite. Cousins ​​has had a pretty tough schedule so far and has hit at least 4 times his salary in three of those games, against the Bengals, Cardinals and Seahawks. It should be a much softer clash against the Lions, who have allowed an average of 29.8 points per game, the fourth-highest in the league. With Dalvin Cook ($ 8,400) still bumped forward this week, we’ve seen Cousins ​​back down 80 times in the past two weeks.
Player Accessories for Kirk Cousins ​​on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Pass Yards: 283.5 (over -115 under -115)
Passing TDs: 2.5 (over +160 under -215)
Pass + Rush Yards: 290.5 (over -115 under -115)
Success attempts: 33.5 (over -120 under -110)
Wide receiver to pair it with
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $ 7,700 – Jefferson rose to second most expensive receiver on this list, behind only Davante Adams ($ 8,200). While Adams has only reached the end zone once, Jefferson has done so in three straight weeks, averaging 23 DKFP in those games. Jefferson has some of the best one-on-one clashes on this list, he’s mostly played on the left side of the pitch (41% of his shots), so he’ll be seeing plenty of CB Amani Oruwariye. He’s been targeted 16 times, allowing 11 receptions for 151 yards and averaging 13.7 YPR. Jefferson leads the Vikings in aerial yards with 417 while giving him an aDOT of 11.2. With those numbers in mind and the Lions allowing an 11.7 YPT to lead the league, Jefferson should be enjoying this high school.
Player Accessories for Justin Jefferson on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Receptions: 6.5 (over +110 under -150)
Reception price: 82.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest receptions: 26.5 (over -115 under -115)
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