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Week 4 is upon us, but you already knew that. We have a lot of football statistics and analysis so don’t waste your time anymore.
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Largest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite moneyline
Bison Tickets (-1375; -16.5) c. Houston Texans (+800)
Betting trends:
2021 home bills: 1-1
Home record for 2021 Bills when favored: 1-1
Bills 2021 Record ATS: 2-1
2021 ATS Bills record when favored: 2-1
2021 Texans road record: 0-1
2021 Texans road record as underdogs: 0-1
2021 Texans ATS Record: 2-1
Texans 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 2-1
I mean, these are just ridiculous chances. You look at those odds and ask yourself, “How the hell can the Texans NOT cover?” Well, surprisingly enough, the teams in these scenarios cover up. A LOT. Since 2003, favorites of 16 or more points have gone 47-3 SU and 23-25-2 ATS. Incredible, right? When you watch this game, nothing really makes me want to bet on the Texans, despite being 2-1 ATS this season. Additionally, Houston averaged 5.3 points in the first three weeks. Davis Mills ($ 4,900) is expected to start this game again after a decent performance in Week 2 against the Panthers. He completed 19 of 29 attempted passes for 168 yards and a touchdown. Not too bad for a very strong defensive team.
The problem with week 4 is that the Bills corner has been completely extinct so far. Tre’Davious White, Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson all only allowed a 55.6% receive rate out of a total of 48 targets. Wallace is the only corner to have scored so far for a total of 131 receiving yards. That doesn’t bode well for the Texans, who have said they will “go on the offensive†for Mills this week. The Bills’ pass rush also ranks in the Top 10 so far, according to Pro Football Focus. They have already racked up nine sacks and have been under pressure from opposing quarterbacks 37% of the time.
Other notable favorites: Saints of New Orleans (-335; -7.5) vs New York Giants (+260), Titans of Tennessee (-320; -7) to New York Jets (+250)
Best DraftKings Sports Bets Projected total
Arizona Cardinals (+180) to The Los Angeles Rams (-4; -220) Over / Under: 55
Betting trends:
2021 Cardinals road record: 2-0
Road record for the 2021 Cardinals as outsiders: 1-0
2021 Cardinals Record Over / Under: 1-2
2021 Cardinals Over / under record when outsiders: 0-1
Rams 2021 home record: 2-0
2021 Rams home record as favorites: 1-0
2021 Rams Record Over / Under: 3-0
2021 Rams Record Over / Under as favorites: 2-0
That total has seen a five-point increase since last week, when we saw it at 50 points. It has since skyrocketed to 55, with a pass of -106. The Cardinals, despite being 1-2 with the top hitting, are tied with the Buccaneers, averaging 34.3 points per game for the league lead. The Rams aren’t far behind at 31.7 per game, which is the third best. To that end, neither team is slacking off much on defense, with the Rams allowing an average of 20.7 and the Cardinals of 21.7. The Rams are also playing at one of the slower paces compared to the rest of the league, averaging 57.7 games per game, which puts them in 26th place.
I’m extremely torn on the total for this game. At 55, I feel a bit high with the defensive quality of these teams. Coverage for the Cardinals, according to PFF, ranks 3rd in the league while the Rams are 11th. Considering the way these attacks played out, I feel like we’ll see a good number of runs scored in this game, I’m just not convinced that we are going past that threshold of 55 to pull this bet out. The match you want to watch in this one, for everyday fantasy purposes, is Cooper Kupp ($ 7,800) against the corners of the slots. He will mainly see CB Byron Murphy Jr, who has been shot 14 times and allowed eight receptions for 156 yards (19.5 YPR) and a touchdown. Kupp continues to be the alpha in these attacks and has at least 10 targets in all three games. Deandre Hopkins ($ 7,700) get tangled up with CB Jalen Ramsey. Hopkins suffers from a rib injury, but has only missed two games in his career.
Another notable total: Kansas City Chiefs (-310; -7) to Philadelphia Eagles (+245) O / U 54
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This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over / under.
Teams against spread:
Top ATS Teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Carolina Panthers | 3-0 | 10.2 |
| Denver Broncos | 3-0 | 10.2 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3-0 | ten |
| Arizona Cardinals | 2-1 | 9.7 |
| Las Vegas Adventurers | 2-1 | 7.7 |
The worst ATS teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0-3 | -9.2 |
| Washington football team | 0-3 | -8 |
| New York Jets | 0-3 | -10.2 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0-3 | -6.3 |
| Chicago Bear | 1-2 | -7.3 |
Higher / lower team records:
Best team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-0 | 10.5 |
| The Los Angeles Rams | 3-0 | 2.8 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 2-1 | 4 |
| Washington football team | 2-1 | 9 |
| Detroit Lions | 2-1 | 5.2 |
Worst team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 0-3 | -13.2 |
| New England Patriots | 0-3 | -8.2 |
| Denver Broncos | 0-3 | -8.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 0-3 | -9.5 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0-3 | -11.3 |
Target report
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 4 | Avg. TGT per match |
|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 4 | Avg. TGT per match |
| Davante Adams | FR | PIT | 11.3 |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | ARZ | 11 |
| Brandin cooks | HOU | BUF | 10.7 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | HOU | 10.3 |
| Dj moore | AUTO | DAL | 10.3 |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | SEA | ten |
| Cole beasley | BUF | HOU | ten |
| Justin jefferson | MIN | KEY | ten |
| Chase claypool | PIT | FR | 9.7 |
| Calvin ridley | ATL | WAS | 9.7 |
Quarterback to build around
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles v Kansas City Chiefs, $ 6,900 – We all saw a really lousy Eagles game on Monday night as the Cowboys did all they could to make the Eagles offense unfit. That said, the Chiefs’ defense will offer a low pass rush and should give Hurts more time to pitch. In a game where the Eagles were losing big, Hurts fell back 48 times and still had 64.1% of his attempted passes for 326 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. He also rushed the ball nine times for 35 extra yards. With this type of volume, Hurts is going to keep posting great good days, even if the real one doesn’t look good. When Hurts has a clean pocket, something he’s worked with 71.8% of the time, he’s averaging 7.1 YPA, an adjusted 80% completion percentage and two of his five passing touchdowns.
Player Accessories for Jalen Hurts on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Overtaking sites: OTB
Passing TDs: 1.5 (over +110 under -145)
Pass + Rush Yards: 293.5 (over -115 under -115)
Success attempts: 31.5 (over -125 under -105)
Wide receiver to pair it with
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs $ 5,700 – Another reason to love Hurts is how affordable it is to pair him with Smith. That leaves you on average $ 5,342 per player to fill your roster. Even if you used the most expensive D / ST option on the bills ($ 4,300), you would get up to $ 5,516. Smith has been quiet for the past two weeks, but it’s shaping up to be a great place to see more of his production in Week 1, when he had six receptions for 71 yards and a touchdown. Smith is set to face CB Mike Hughes on the majority of his shots, who has been shot 11 times and allowed eight receptions for 80 yards and two touchdowns. It’s a good start to cover for Hughes, but he’s below par at best since he was drafted in the first round by the Vikings in 2018. As the preferred option for Hurts in a game that he should fall back a lot, Smith is a very affordable play.
Player Accessories for Tyler Lockett on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Receptions: 3.5 (over -150 less than -105)
Receiving Yards: 47.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest receptions: 20.5 (over -115 under -115)
High-end feedback to take into account
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at New York Jets, $ 8,800 – This is one of those games where he has everything he needs to be one of those massive Henry Weeks. All the boxes are checked in this one and we have historical data to back it up. We hear rumors that some of the Titans’ offensive weapons are smashed into both AJ Brown ($ 6,300) and Julio Jones ($ 6,500) and yet the Titans are still above a touchdown favorite on the road. In these scenarios, when the Titans are on the road and at least -6.5 road favorites, Henry is averaging DKFP 30.5. For someone who averages 54.4% of total team contacts and all running scenarios, this is a week that I’m going to lock down Henry across the board.
Player Accessories for Derrick Henry on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Precipitation Yards: 109.5 (over -115 under -115)
Rushed Attempts: 24.5 (over -125 under -105)
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