MLB Cheat: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Selections, Predictions, Betting Odds For September 17
Each team is in action Friday night, with a massive 15-game lineup with no weather issues. Let’s take a look at how to approach tonight’s matches from a betting and everyday fantasy perspective.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Play Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Chris Sale, $ 9,500, Boston Red Sox (-350) against Baltimore Orioles (+270) – Sale is enabled on the COVID-19 list to get it started tonight. Everyone is clearly behind him to get back to normal, as the Red Sox are by far the biggest favorites in the table. He’s made five starts since his return and the Red Sox are 4-1 in those games. This will be Sale’s first start since September 6, which was a nightmare for the Sox defensively. Sale allowed 10 hits, but of the five allowed, only one came with 3 2??3 sleeves. He struck out six at bat in the process but still finished with just 11.7 DKFP.
As I’ve said many times before in this article, the Orioles are a good hitting club against lefties. They’ve faced Sale once before and managed to score him two runs on six hits, but they struck out eight at bat in five innings. Aside from the last start he made, Sale pitched as expected and has a 10.8 K / 9 with a 2.1 BB / 9. His FIP is a bit higher than expected at 3.93 but at $ 9,500 I’m not too worried. This team is also hitting a TON this month, posting the league’s third-highest K% at 26.6%. This bodes well for Sale, who has struck out at least five batters in four of his five starts. It’s also the cheapest sale we’ve seen since its return, surpassing the previous low of $ 9,600.
Highest Projected Total
Minnesota Twins (+185; 3.5 races) to Toronto Blue Jays (-225; 5.5 strokes) 9.5 strokes – We have many games with a projected 9.5 for tonight but this is the one that interests me the most. The Twins are the best team in the league to surpass game tally, doing so in 58.6% of their games. Being on the road isn’t a problem for the total either, as they also lead the league as the road team hit the top at 63.2%. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, haven’t done well in this area overall, hitting the top in just 54.4% of their games. Even with how well this team is playing in September, the pass is only 6-6-3 this month.
I really like the end of tonight with the projected pitching match of Michael Pineda ($ 5,600) and Hyun-Jin Ryu ($ 8,600). It seems like a good place to beat the Twins’ tally against Ryu, who has really struggled this season. His PIF of 3.82, while not bad at all, is almost better than last season. He’s also giving up more home runs than usual and has seen his strikeouts drop by two on average from last season. While the Twins don’t have some of the big sticks against lefties like they did to start the season, they still have a very respectable ISO of .173 against them.
As for the Blue Jays, this attack was almost unstoppable in September. They lead the league in virtually every offense category this month, including races (120) circuits (37) ISO (.282) and wOBA (.412). Now they will face Pineda, with his 4.18 FIP and 1.4 HR / 9. He rarely makes it into games, which means the Blue Jays will have a shot at a reliever box that has a PIF of 4.63 in September.
No weather worries tonight!
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Pitchers vs. left-handed hitters
Worse against LHB, wOBA, FIP
Josiah Gray. 372, 7.76
Luis Patino, .372, 6.21
Casey Mize, .361, 6.15
Best vs LHB, wOBA, FIP
Corey Kluber, .220, 1.81
Zack Wheeler, 0.266, 2.68
Hyun Jin Ryu 0.303, 2.93
Pitchers vs. right-handed hitters
Worse vs RHB, wOBA, FIP
Josiah Gray, 0.384, 6.55
Wil Crowe 0.403, 6.37
Vince Velasquez, .336, 5.87
Best vs RHB, wOBA, FIP
Zack Wheeler, 0.251, 2.65
Logan Webb, .257, 2.68
Walker Buehler,. 239, 3.05
Pitcher to build around
Dylan Cesse, Chicago White Sox To Texas Rangers, $ 9,100 – Friday has a lot of big names at SP but I really like using Cease. He’s just off a rough start against the Red Sox in which he was scored for seven runs on four hits and five walks. Not great, right? People will look at this result and move on. It works great for us because he’s in a much, much softer game against the Rangers. Cease brings very high strikeouts for someone at just $ 9,100, as his 12.0K / 9 is one of the highest in the league as a starter. This Rangers team will be retired at bat and their offense hit for very little power in September with just an ISO of 0.119. If we can see the Cease who has an FIP of 3.66 on the season instead of what was shown last time, he could perform very well with very little ownership.
Stud hitter to pay
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks $ 4,400 – This place is usually reserved for a hitter who is expensive on the slate but I break my own rules. Bregman’s salary is laughable and I’ll take full advantage of it. At just $ 4,400, Bregman has been annihilating the ball since returning to the Astros. In fact, in his last 10 games he’s averaged a ridiculous 12.2 DKFP with three home runs, two doubles and 16 (!) RBI. Those 16 RBIs represent 31% of his season total, which is insane. Now he will face Madison Bumgarner ($ 8,400) who has allowed 15 runs and five homers in his last three starts. Against lefties, Bregman has a wOBA of .396, ISO of .159 and 158 wRC + in an injury-plagued season.
Save big by writing
Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles, $ 3,300 – Dalbec is another bat that seems extremely undervalued considering the quality of his hitting. At just $ 3,300, Dalbec brings some very solid numbers in September, including a .423 wOBA, an ISO .395, and a 168 wRC +. He’s had four home runs, three doubles and a triple this month, which is shaping up to be one of his best this season. Tonight he gets a fantastic match against Keegan Akin ($ 5,100) who has a 5.40 FIP, a 1.5 HR / 9 and a 4.2 BB / 9 in the second half of the season.
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