MLB Cheat: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Selections, Predictions, Betting Odds For September 29
We have a huge roster Wednesday night that will continue an incredible playoff push by a number of teams. Let’s see what to expect tonight.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Play Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Max Scherzer, $ 10,400, Los Angeles Dodgers (-310) vs. San Diego Padres (+245) – Since Scherzer arrived in Los Angeles, he has absolutely dominated (except in his last outing) every team he has faced. Over 10 starts in the Blue Dodger, he pitched 63 innings and produced an FIP of 1.56, a wOBA of 0.195, a K / 9 of 12.1 and an HR / 9 of 0.4. He struggled at Coors Field on his last start, allowing five runs in five innings and his numbers STILL look like this. For a laugh, if we take that start off, Scherzer has a FIP of 1.35 and a wOBA of 0.180 since joining the Dodgers.
Now he’s tasked with facing the Padres, a team he blanked in his two starts against them until the 15th. 2??3 sleeves. Scherzer has recorded 19 strikeouts and just three hits allowed in those games, giving him an incredible WHIP of 0.26 and a batting average of 0.061 against. The Padres have nothing to do at the moment and frankly that’s how they played throughout September. They only scored more points than the Angels and Twins and have one of the lowest ISOs at .147. Understandably, they don’t pose a big threat to Scherzer and he should be one of the more popular pitcher options tonight.
Highest Projected Total
Boston Red Sox (-265; 5.5 races) at Baltimore Orioles (+215; 3.5 passages) 9.5 passages – Despite almost a full list of games tonight, the highest projected total still remains below that double-digit threshold. 9.5 points is the biggest total of the night with the Red Sox big favorites against the Orioles and Zak Lowther ($ 5,000). Lowther has made nine appearances in total, including two as a starter. He was a starter in the minors but struggled to find much success, posting a 4.78 FIP with a 4.7BB / 9 at 30 1/3 innings in Triple-A. Aside from a strong start against Rangers in his last outing, Lowther also struggled to find any success in the majors, pitching 24 2/3 innings with an FIP of 5.75, a 4.7 BB / 9 and a 1.8 HR / 9.
That said, the Red Sox struggled to get most things done last night in what was seen as an easy clash against Bruce Zimmermann. They lost their fourth game in a row at the most important moment and aren’t getting much core production from their roster. They hover around the league average in most offensive categories against lefties, posting a .326 wOBA, .160 ISO and 102 wRC + against them. They SHOULD be able to play Lowther and a bullpen in September with an FIP of 5.20. But, we all felt that yesterday too. Nathan Eovaldi ($ 8,400) should be able to lead this team to a win, but I’m not entirely convinced that this Red Sox offense is at a point where I can guarantee at least six points.
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Pitchers vs. left-handed hitters
Worse against LHB, wOBA, FIP
Elieser Hernandez, .407, 8.48
Casey Mize, .354, 5.90
Taijuan Walker, .283, 4.62
Best vs LHB, wOBA, FIP
Carlos Rodon,. 270, 1.46
Nathan Eovaldi,. 280, 2.28
Drew Rasmussen, .252, 2.46
Pitchers vs. right-handed hitters
Worse vs RHB, wOBA, FIP
Ryan Weathers, 0.366, 5.89
Zac Lowther, 0.355, 5.68
Daniel Lynch, .376, 5.20
Best vs RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer,. 224, 2.55
Elieser Hernandez, .287, 2.59
Gerrit Cole, 0.251, 2.64
Pitcher to build around
Max Scherzer, Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres, $ 10,400 – It’s not difficult. Play Scherzer.
Stud hitter to pay
Hunter Renfroe, Boston Red Sox to Baltimore Orioles, $ 4,600 – I mentioned earlier that the Red Sox offense has been inconsistent lately. A man who was NOT Renfroe. This guy doesn’t just break the ball, he does it against lefties. Over the season, Renfroe is averaging DKFP 8.0 against them with a wOBA of .380, ISO of .237 and wRC + of 139. Specifically in the second half of the season, Renfroe struck for a ton of power, which is evident by its ISO of 0.297 over this period. At $ 4,600 in his favorite game, I love using Renfroe here.
Save big by writing
Nick Gordon, Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers, $ 2,400 – We have already used Gordon has a high added value and his salary is still extremely affordable. I love his match against Casey Mize ($ 5,700) who has some of the worst numbers on this slate against lefties. How bad are you wondering? How about a 5.90 FIP, a .354 wOBA and a 2.1 HR / 9 bad? Gordon has calmed down a bit after a very hot start to September, but he doesn’t need to do much to reach 3 times the value of that $ 2,400 salary. He enters this game with a wOBA .315, an ISO .161 and a wRC + 99 against the righties.
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