MLB Cheat: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Selections, Predictions, Betting Odds For September 20
Monday brings a list of seven baseball games that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET. This morning brought some noticeable odds changes in the season’s rewards, as tonight’s most expensive pitcher, Robbie Ray ($ 10,200) is now the favorite to win the American League’s Cy Young Award (-250) against Gerrit Cole (+225). Bryce Harper ($ 6,000) is also now the new favorite to win the National League MVP title (-120), taking a slight lead over Fernando Tatis Jr (+105).
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DraftKings Sportsbook Play Notes
Biggest Moneyline Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Nestor Cortes Jr., $ 8,600, New York Yankees (-275) against Texas Rangers (+220) – Dude, I like watching Cortes pitcher. He’s only been mean when he started, which has now happened 11 times this season. In these cases, Cortes has a wOBA of 0.283, an FIP of 4.21, a K / 9 of 8.9, and an HR / 9 of 1.5. The southpaw faces a Rangers club that has some of the worst numbers in the league against lefties, including a wOBA .281, ISO .121, 78 wRC + and K% 21.2%. It’s hard not to like someone against a team with such poor numbers against lefties. Cortes hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start in five of his last six starts, the only âhitâ being three runs on four hits against the Athletics. While the -275 silver line is a bit steep, you can also get the Yankees at -140 on the -1.5 silver line. They haven’t really performed well on the race line when they’ve been favored this season, conceding just 39.2% of the time, but it’s a game where I would feel good to take them. The Rangers just can’t hit a left handed pitcher and with the way Cortes pitched I’d feel confident the Yankees would take this one.
Highest Projected Total
Atlanta Braves (-195; 5.5 races) at Arizona Diamondbacks (+165; 3.5 races) 9 races – There aren’t many high totals tonight, as nine is the biggest of seven games. That said, the Braves are the lopsided favorites in this road game against the Diamondbacks. These are two teams that do well to overtake the game total, as the Diamondbacks are second best, doing so 57 percent of the time. The Braves do it 48.5% of the time overall but not on the road, where it’s only 39.7%, the worst in the league.
That said, the Braves will face Humberto Mejia ($ 7,800) who is called from Triple-A to take this start. We’ve seen Mejia twice this season, making two starts in August against the Pirates and Phillies. Mejia allowed six runs on 14 hits and 10 strikeouts in 11 innings. He didn’t perform well in Triple-A, which spanned 71/23 innings. In 15 starts, he has a 5.36 FIP, a 7.9 K / 9, a 3.3 BB / 9 and a 1.2 HR / 9. Nothing really shows that he should find much success against the Braves, who will also have the advantage of starting against this bullpen. In September, the Diamondbacks relievers combined for a 5.57 FIP, 1.4 HR / 9, 4.5 BB / 9 and only 6.1 K / 9.
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Pitchers vs. left-handed hitters
Worse against LHB, wOBA, FIP
Jake Woodford, .392, 5.24
John means, .277, 3.62
Freddy Peralta, .250, 3.55
Best vs LHB, wOBA, FIP
Ranger Suarez, .158, 1.92
Huascar Ynoa,. 224, 2.27
Tyler Anderson, .268, 3.08
Pitchers vs. right-handed hitters
Worse vs RHB, wOBA, FIP
John means, .290, 4.86
Jake Woodford, 0.288, 4.75
Tyler Anderson, 0.324, 4.64
Best vs RHB, wOBA, FIP
Freddy Peralta, .239, 2.47
Robbie Ray, .284, 3.41
Ranger Suarez, .273, 3.47
Pitcher to build around
Robbie Ray, Toronto Blue Jays To Tampa Bay Rays, $ 10,200 – If you’ve got this Robbie Ray Cy Young ticket, it’s a good start for Ray. Gerrit Cole was enlightened by Indians yesterday and now Ray can really distance himself from Cole. He faces a familiar foe tonight in the Rays, a team he will face for the sixth time this season. In 34 innings, he allowed seven runs on 21 hits and struck out 46 strikes, giving him an average of 29.6 DKFP in those games. His leading numbers support his starline against them, posting an FIP of 2.63, a K / 9 of 12.2 and a BB / 9 of 0.8. The Rays enter this game after losing two of three games to the Tigers with a series average of 3.3 points. Selfish reasons aside, Ray has some of the best batting advantages available on this slate.
Stud hitter to pay
Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros To Los Angeles Angels, $ 5,100 – Jaime Barria ($ 5,600) is about to start for the Angels tonight and let me tell you that a lot of contacts will be made by the Astros. Up to 49 1??3 innings, Barria only has 5.4 K / 9. It’s very, very low. Letting go of contact to generate exits is fine, but you really have to make the exits. Barria doesn’t do this against lefties, as evidenced by his wOBA .361, a 5.98 FIP and a 1.6 HR / 9. His K / 9 against them in particular drops even LOWER (I didn’t think it was possible) to 3.8! With the enormous amount of power Alvarez possesses, he should have a good night’s sleep on the plate.
Save big by writing
Eddie Rosario, Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks, $ 2,500 – It’s crazy how much Rosario’s salary has gone down. It was justified, because he did not start every day, but he recently reached sixth place in the order of the Braves. If he gets the start, he brings tremendous value to an attack with one of the highest projected team totals on the slate. He’s had a great run at plate lately, averaging 11.8 DKFP in his last five games. His numbers against righties are still pretty good, averaging 8.2 DKFP, .338 wOBA, .215 ISO and 112 wRC +.
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