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Life is funny. I was openly complaining about the betting table last week for week 7. Then Monday comes this week and the table this week (in my opinion) is even worse! I’d love to grab the Week 7 board back. So I guess, be careful what you wish for. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at Week 8 and how to attack it from a daily and betting perspective.
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Largest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite moneyline
The Los Angeles Rams (-14; -1000) against Houston Texans (+650)
Betting trends:
Rams road record 2021: 3-0
Rams road record 2021 when favored: 3-0
Rams ATS record 2021: 4-3
Rams 2021 ATS record when favored: 3-3
2021 Texans home record: 1-2
Texans 2021 home record as underdogs: 1-2
2021 Texans ATS Record: 3-4
Texans’ 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 3-4
Last week, when we had all the big favorites on the board, the Rams were one of the teams that didn’t cover the double-digit spread in their game against the Lions. To be fair, the Lions played an incredible game and went out of their way to try and get the win. It wasn’t enough, of course, but it certainly changed my outlook for going forward.
As for this week, the Texans are a team that still looks like they’ve died in the water. In seven games this season, they have now scored nine points or less in FOUR OF THEM. FOUR. ONE TWO THREE, FOUR. It’s not very good, guys and girls. It’s also the fifth time this season that the Texans have been double-digit underdogs, a scenario where they’ve gone 1-3 in ATS. The Rams are one of the best ATS teams in the league, going 4-3 while covering an average of 2.6 points. This is the second week in a row they are double-digit favorites.
Last week a stack that was in the money included Matt Stafford ($ 7,600), Darrell Henderson ($ 6,500) and Cooper Kupp ($ 9,000). That stack of three players combined for DKFP 80.16, even with a dud of a Henderson game. The Rams playing from behind immediately turned it into a heavy play script for the Rams, but Henderson still had 15 carries and six targets. I like the idea of ​​this type of stack again, to play with the idea that the Rams throw early and then finish the clock with Henderson. That said, it’s also a lot more expensive this time around, as these three would consume almost 50% of your salary cap. With many double-digit favorites on the board, this is one type of stack that I would highly consider this week.
Other notable favorites: Miami dolphins (+600) To Bison Tickets (-14; -900)
Best DraftKings Sports Bets Projected total
Titans of Tennessee (+3; – + 135) to Indianapolis Colts (-3; -155) Over / Under: 51
Betting trends:
2021 Titans road record: 2-1
Titans road record 2021 as underdogs: 1-0
2021 Titans Over / Under Record: 4-3
Titans 2021 over / under record as underdogs: 2-1
Colts 2021 home record: 1-2
Colts 2021 home record as favorites: 1-0
2021 Colts Record Over / Under: 4-3
Colts 2021 Over / Under record as favorites: 0-1
The Titans were involved in one of the biggest totals we’ve seen all season against the Chiefs last week. I certainly don’t need to tell you that the game broke, but rather that it went A LOT. Closing with an over / under of 59, those teams combined for a total of 30 points, with the Titans scoring 27. The Titans were one of the best teams to take the plunge with a 4-3 record and had hit the mark in three straight games before the Chiefs forgot how to play football. Indy is also 4-3 with the top, hitting him in three of the last four games.
I find it hard to understand this Colts team. Are they good? Are they just doing enough to get by? Do i really trust Carson Wentz ($ 5,700)? Aside from his 402 passing yards against the Ravens, he was quite disappointing. Granted, he’s playing with two butt-ankles, so we can’t totally fault him, but his performance under cross has been pretty poor. It’s one of the best games he’s had on paper, but he’s also averaging just 242 passing yards and a 64.4% completion percentage. His offensive line has been a disaster, allowing him to take 40% of his losses under pressure, leading him to a 54.7% completion percentage and 6.9 YPA in those scenarios. The Titans weren’t good at putting pressure on the quarterback, so this could be a week where we see Wentz at his best. Again, I’m just fighting with this team.
I would lean on the top in this 51-point game. We’ve seen a lot of movement on the spread in this game, with the Colts opening as favorites at -1.5 and are now at -3 on Friday morning. The total also saw its share of movement, being as low as 47.5 at one point, but rising steadily since. At 51, I still think we can see the top, but we would lean more down if he kept going up. Both teams struggled to defend the pass and the Titans are still seeing Ryan Tannehill ($ 6,600) average 32 passing attempts per game. With that total of 51, I think we have a very realistic chance that this game will end.
Another notable total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5; -220) To New Orleans Saints (+180) O / U 50.5
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This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over / under.
Teams against spread:
Top ATS Teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Indianapolis Colts | 5-2 | 4.8 |
| Titans of Tennessee | 5-2 | 4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4-2 | 0.2 |
| Bison Tickets | 4-2 | 11 |
| Detroit Lions | 4-3 | -1.5 |
The worst ATS teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Washington football team | 1-6 | -6.8 |
| New York Jets | 1-5 | -ten |
| San Francisco 49ers | 1-5 | -4.9 |
| Miami dolphins | 2-5 | -8.7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-4 | -5.3 |
Higher / lower team records:
Best team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| The Los Angeles Rams | 4-2-1 | -0.4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 4-2 | 3.8 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 4-3 | -0.1 |
| Titans of Tennessee | 4-3 | -0.5 |
| Miami dolphins | 4-3 | 1.9 |
Worst team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| Chicago Bear | 1-6 | -7.3 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1-5 | -5.1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 1-5 | -1.2 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 1-4 | -2.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 2-5 | -0.9 |
Target report
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 8 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Opponent of the week 8 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | HOU | 11.6 | ten |
| Deebo Samuel | SF | CHI | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| Dj moore | AUTO | ATL | 10.4 | 8 |
| Calvin ridley | ATL | AUTO | 10.4 | 5.4 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KEY | ten | 7.5 |
| Terry mclaurin | WAS | LAIR | 9.9 | 8 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | MIA | 9.7 | 8 |
| Keenan Allen | LAKE | BORN | 9.7 | 7.2 |
| Mike williams | LAKE | BORN | 9.3 | 8.9 |
| Brandin cooks | HOU | LAR | 9.1 | 7.8 |
| Higgins T-shirt | CIN | NYJ | 8.6 | 6 |
Quarterback to build around
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $ 8,100 – For most of the weeks I try to give a QB / WR pair which is not considered the chalk game of the week. Having said that, it would be almost spurious if I didn’t write Allen. The Bills are huge -14 favorites against the Dolphins and have a 3.5 over / under total touchdown on DraftKings Sportsbook. From Friday afternoon, the over is pressed until -155. Bills are also projected at 31.5 points in total, which is the highest on the slate. The Rams are second at 30.5. The Dolphins are handing over a ton of production to opposing QBs, allowing an average of 311 passing yards, 22.9 DKFP and 15 total passing TDs. The pass rush is rated near the league average, but even in that scenario Allen threw six of his 15 total touchdowns with 7.7 YPA. Allen also gave us five games of 26 or more rushing yards, which adds even more to his already massive ceiling.
Player Accessories for Josh Allen on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Pass Yards: 283.5 (over -115 under -115)
Passing TDs: 2.5 (more than +120 under -160)
Passes + Rushing Yards 316.5 (over -115 under -115)
Anytime Hit Marker: +100
Wide receiver to pair it with
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $ 8,100 – Diggs didn’t enter the end zone as much as expected, but he still shows some solid fantastic numbers. In six games, Diggs is averaging 77.2 receiving yards, 9.6 targets and 16.4 DKFP per game. It represented 35% of the Bills’ total aerial work sites, giving it an aDOT of 12.4 meters. Diggs also has one of the best coverage clashes against CB Byron Jones when he lines up on the left side, which he did on 39% of his shots. When he’s on that side of the pitch, he’ll face Jones, who has been targeted 35 times, allowing 24 receptions for an 11.7 YPR average and two total touchdowns. Jones has really struggled over the past two weeks in particular, allowing 13 of his 15 counter targets to be caught for 145 total yards. It’s not going to get much easier this week against Diggs.
Player Accessories for Stefon Diggs on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Reception price: 86.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest receptions: 25.5 (over -120 under -110)
TD Marker: First +650 Last +650 Anytime -110
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