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Hello to all the thugs. Welcome to week 13 has arrived and we’ll discuss it. So let’s do it.
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The Los Angeles Rams (-12.5; -720) against Jacksonville Jaguars (+500)
Betting trends:
2021 Rams home record: 3-2
2021 Rams home record when favored: 2-2
Rams ATS Record 2021: 4-7
Rams 2021 ATS record when favored: 3-7
Jaguars 2021 road record: 0-4
2021 Jaguars road record as outsiders: 0-3
2021 Jaguars ATS Record: 4-7
Jaguars 2021 ATS record as outsiders: 4-6
Man, can you feel good with the Rams now? It’s hard to do, even against this Jaguars team. Believe me, is it NOT an endorsement to bet the Jaguars by any means, however, the Rams as the biggest favorite? It doesn’t seem like an attractive bet to me. The Rams come into this game after losing three straight and have failed to cover in five straight. Three of those Rams games were double-digit favorites. They’ve won two of those games straight away, but covering the spread has been a major problem lately.
The news broke on Sunday morning that Matt Stafford ($ 7,300) struggles with chronic back pain, ankle pain and recurring elbow pain. Like, what is it, man? He followed the news by making just 55.3% of his 38 attempted passes, but they totaled 302 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. 79 of these sites came on a beautiful Van Jefferson ($ 5,300) TD to help him save his day. Other than that, Stafford didn’t seem very limited otherwise. Now he will face a Jaguars defense that grants one of the highest passing attempts against QBs at 7.91. This bodes well for Stafford, who himself is fourth in the league in YPA at 8.3. Between Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr ($ 5,500) it has two real threats to expand the field and capitalize on the weakness. Beckham averaged 16.2 YPC last week, with 5/81/1 on 10 targets.
I don’t believe the Rams will give up their fourth straight game against the Jaguars. Most of you don’t either. Having said that, I am not at all ready to bet on this game. I can’t trust this Rams team to cover such a big gap, even against a weak team like the Jags. Two of the four games the Jags covered were double-digit dogs. They closed at +14.5 against the Bills, whom they beat immediately (I still don’t understand) and +10.5 against the Colts, which they lost by six. This is a classic case of a “best team bet” which is by far the Rams. Against the gap though, it’s not a place where I feel comfortable on the favorite with points.
Other notable favorites: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-575; -11) To Atlanta Falcons (+410)
Best DraftKings Sports Bets Projected total
Cincinnati Bengals (-3; -165) against Los Angeles Chargers (+145) Over / Under: 50.5
Betting trends:
Chargers road record 2021: 3-2
Chargers road record 2021 as underdogs: 2-1
Chargers 2021 Record Over / Under: 4-7
Chargers 2021 Over / Under record as outsiders: 0-3
2021 Bengals home record: 3-2
2021 Bengals home record as favorites: 2-1
Bengals 2021 over / under record: 5-6
Bengals 2021 Over / Under record as favorites: 3-3
Two teams that did not particularly manage to exceed the match total. Those teams combined to go 9-13 with the upper hand, with the Chargers being the worst off team. While the Bengals are under .500 with the lead, they have covered four of their last five games after starting with a 1-4 record. To help in the end, the Bengals come into this game averaging just under 30 points per game in their last three games at 29.7. The Chargers are 24.8 in their last three games.
This game’s biggest weakness comes in the form of the Chargers’ run defense. He ranks among the worst in the league while allowing the most rushing yards with 1336 or an average of 121 per game. The 4.6 YPC allowed is also one of the highest and will be a problem against a hot red Joe Mixon ($ 8,100). He has amassed 288 rushing yards on 58 carries (4.9 YPC) in his last two games. Although both games are blowouts, Mixon has managed to find massive success. That being said, the Bengals are one of the slower teams in the league, averaging 61.4 (24th) games per game. For reference, the Ravens lead the league at 71.2. I think the value of that total was after the initial open at 48. Since then it has hit 51 and currently sits at a total of 50.5. If we can get that number back to 50 again, I would be interested, but I think that total is going in the wrong direction.
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This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over / under.
Teams against spread:
Top ATS Teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| Arizona Cardinals | 8-3 | 7 |
| Detroit Lions | 7-4 | -2.6 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 7-5 | 4.8 |
| Miami dolphins | 6-5-1 | -0.8 |
| New York Giants | 6-5 | 0.5 |
The worst ATS teams
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Save | ATS +/- |
| New York Jets | 3-8 | -5.4 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-7 | -4.5 |
| Chicago Bear | 4-7 | -2.7 |
| Washington football team | 4-7 | -1.6 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 4-7 | -3.6 |
Plus / minus team records:
Best team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8-4 | 4.8 |
| The Los Angeles Rams | 6-4-1 | 0.9 |
| Las Vegas Adventurers | 6-5 | 1.7 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6-5 | 1 |
| New York Jets | 6-5 | 4.1 |
Worst team on records
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | No more recording | Total +/- |
| Seattle Seahawks | 1-9-1 | -8.8 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2-9 | -5.5 |
| Detroit Lions | 3-8 | -4 |
| Chicago Bear | 3-8 | -3.9 |
| New York Giants | 3-7 | -5.3 |
Target report
| Player | Team | Opponent of the Week 13 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Opponent of the Week 13 | Avg. TPG | Average YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | JAX | 11.5 | 9.8 |
| Diontae johnson | PIT | BALL | 10.9 | 7.4 |
| Keenan Allen | LAKE | CIN | 10.5 | 7.7 |
| Marquise Brown | BALL | PIT | 9.2 | 8.4 |
| Terry mclaurin | WAS | LV | 8.9 | 8 |
| Justin jefferson | MIN | DET | 8.9 | 10.5 |
| Jaylen waddles | MIA | NYG | 8.7 | 7.3 |
| Sterling shepard | NYG | MIA | 8.6 | 7.5 |
| Brandin cooks | HOU | INDIANA | 8.4 | 7.7 |
| Adam thielen | MIN | DET | 8.2 | 7.6 |
Quarterback to build around
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings To Detroit Lions, $ 6,500 – We have a lot of solid options on the board this week as a quarterback. However, I get a little red and roll with Cousins ​​against the Lions. As usual, his ownership will be in a few digits despite the good game. The Lions allow the most yards per passing attempt in the league at 8.2 and have allowed an average of 255 passing yards. The Vikings will also be starved of Dalvin Cook, so we could see Cousins ​​pass more, even with an average of over 37 attempts per game. With him being relatively inexpensive throughout the season, Cousins ​​has gone 4X or better in five of his 11 games this season. Faced with this defense as the favorites at -7, one could easily see that happening again.
Wide receiver to pair it with
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, $ 8,200 – When you think of teams going deep against the Lions, that fits Jefferson’s mold perfectly. We’ve seen him stretch the pitch before against the Lions, going 7/124/0 for 22.4 DKFP in Week 5. He will line up the most against CB Amani Oruwariye, who have been targeted 47 times. , allowing 31 receptions (66%) and 14 YPR. The majority of Jefferson’s damage in Week 5 went to Oruwariye, who allowed five of those catches for 101 yards and an average of 20.2 YPR. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jefferson is also a low ownership game this week, as a lot of attention will be paid to Cooper Kupp ($ 9,000) against the Jaguars.
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