It looks like the Oscar race for Best Live Action Short Film is a done deal. According to our combined racetrack ratings, “The Long Goodbye,” starring, produced and co-written by the recent Oscar nominee Rice Ahmad is far ahead to win. These odds are calculated based on predictions made by expert industry journalists, Gold Derby editors, our top 24 users and the thousands of other users who made their predictions.
But could a film other than “The Long Goodbye” win the prize? If so, which one would be able to do it? Let’s take a look at this year’s batch of nominees in order of their current ratings.
“The Long Goodbye” (odds of winning: 16/5)
A Muslim family in the UK enjoys preparing for an upcoming wedding when a far-right nationalist march rolls into the neighborhood and absolute mayhem ensues.
This is Ahmed’s second Oscar nomination after being nominated for Best Actor last year for ‘Sound of Metal’. This is Aneil Karia first application.
Benefits: It’s powerful to watch. The contrast between the joy of the family and the impending dread of what might happen to them is incredibly well put together. It also doesn’t hurt to have someone as high profile as Ahmed involved.
The inconvenients: It might be too blunt for some voters, and others may think it could use more plot and character development.
Who predicts it: 18 Experts, 10 Editors, 23 Top 24 Users and 87% of all users.
“Ala Kachuu: Take and Run” (odds of winning: 4/1)
In Kyrgyzstan, Sezim hopes to study at university, but she is kidnapped from the street and forced to marry a complete stranger. As her family and her new husband’s family try to settle her down, Sezim longs to escape the situation.
These are the first Oscar nominations for both Maria Brendle and Nadine L.üchinger.
Benefits: It highlights an important problem that few people know about. The performance that Alina Turdumamatova gives like Sezim is phenomenal. Perhaps more importantly, though, it’s the only one of these nominees that ends on a hopeful note.
The inconvenients: The abduction and the ensuing wedding scene might be too disturbing for some voters.
Who predicts it: 3 experts, 2 editors and 6% of all users.
“The Dress” (odds of winning: 4/1)
Julia is a short woman who works as a housekeeper in a motel in the Polish countryside and begins to open up when a truck driver starts flirting with her. When he asks her out, she realizes she needs a new dress for the big date.
This is the first nomination for Tadeusz Lysiak. This is the second for Maciej Slesicki which was nominated for Best Documentary Short in 2014 for “Our Curse.”
Benefits: While the short is (mostly) very subtle, there’s a real sweetness and chemistry Anna Dzieduszycka a with its two co-stars is magnificent.
The inconvenients: The short takes a very drastic turn in its final two minutes and there’s a chance Oscar voters won’t agree with how it ends.
Who predicts it: 4 experts, 1 editor and 4% of all users.
“Please wait” (odds of winning: 9/2)
When a young man is suddenly arrested on the street without being told what he’s been charged with, he must navigate a bizarre and frustrating automated justice system.
This is the first Oscar nomination for both KD Davila and Omer Levin Menekse.
Benefits: It’s the most visually striking of all the nominees, and you feel incredible liking for the title character.
The inconvenients: It looks like he intends to convey a larger message, but that can get lost in the satirical parts of the short.
Who predicts it: 1 expert and 2% of all users.
“On My Mind” (odds of winning: 9/2)
After making a life-changing decision, a man goes to a nearby bar to numb his pain. Seeing a karaoke machine, he begs the bar owner to let him sing “Always on My Mind” by willie nelsonbut the owner does not want to let him.
This is the seventh Oscar nomination for Kim Magnussonwho has twice won this category: “Election Night” in 1997 and “Helium” in 2013. This is the second nomination for Martin Strange Hansenwho won this category in 2002 for “This Charming Man”.
Benefits: That goes for the emotional punch and sometimes that can be enough to get the win.
The inconvenients: The reveal of why he has to sing the song seems pretty obvious, and voters might wonder why the protagonist doesn’t mention it to the bar owner right away.
Who predicts it: 1 Expert and 1% of all users.
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