Welcome back, RotoBallers! It’s so great that football is back, and we’re getting back to it with some Week 2 Sunday Night Football DFS rosters. We’ve got one of the best rivalries in the NFL, as the Bears head to Green Bay to face the Packers. The Bears won their Week 1 game against the 49ers, while the Packers suffered the loss to the Vikings last Sunday. Both teams are going to want this one, so let’s take a look.
We’ve done pretty well so far with these matchup slates and hopefully that trend will continue from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it’s always nice when it happens and it’s always a shame when it ends. With today’s advanced analytics, I’ll do my best to provide you with as in-depth analysis as possible regarding position matches and the like to help you put some money in your pocket. Let’s make some money this season gang, and let’s go.
I will provide you daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bears vs Packers NFL DFS showdown slate on Sept. 18. These NFL DFS lineup picks can range from the most expensive players and elite options to the cheapest players and value picks on DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and get started, or sign up for a RotoBaller NFL premium package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts anytime!
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MVP/Captain plays
Aaron Rodgers – QB, $15,900 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key statistics
- Week 1 stats: 195 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, one interception.
- 2022 DVOA Pass Offensive: -4.9% (22nd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -33.1% (4th), per Football Outsiders.
We’ll start the slate with Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers probably had the worst Week 1 he’s ever had in his career, struggling to make anything work in their offense and really feeling the loss of Davante Adams. I would hesitate to play against Rodgers after this performance, but he simply dominates the Bears. He’s thrown for 6,549 yards, 61 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions in 27 games against them in his career, and I expect him to rebound considerably tonight.
AJ Dillon – RB, $12,600 (DK), $9,000 (FD)
Key statistics
- Week 1 stats: 10 attempts, 45 rushing yards, six targets, five receptions, 46 receiving yards.
- Week 1 data: 62.5% attempt rate, 66.67% red zone attempt rate, 100% attempt rate
- Rush DVOA Offensive: 37.7% (5th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defensive Rush DVOA: -2.3% (19th), per Football Outsiders
I’ve been stoned by AJ Dillon all off season, and tonight should be no different. We’re getting solid value here with Dillon being cheaper than Aaron Jones, although Dillon is seeing a higher attempt rate from all parts of the pitch, as well as a higher goal share in the passing game. Although I’m sure that will fluctuate throughout the season, but it’s imperative that we take advantage of the price difference now, especially on DraftKings.
Other Captains/MVPs: Aaron Jones, Justin Herbert, Packers D/ST
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DFS Flexible Games
Justin Fields – QB, $10,200 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key statistics
- Week 1 stats: 121 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception, 11 carries, 28 yards.
- 2022 DVOA Pass Offensive: -5.8% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
- 2021 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 34.1% (26th), per Football Outsiders.
Another guy I was high on all offseason was the Bears starting QB Justin Fields. Fields struggled with ugly conditions and a flooded field in Week 1 against the 49ers, but managed to pull through and lead his team to victory. While I don’t think the Bears as a team will have the same chance against a probably angry Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, I can see Fields using his legs as well as his arm to move the ball around the field, and I believe he’ll get a significant boost if the Packers are able to move up and he is able to pick up unnecessary time points with his legs.
Equanimeous St. Brown – WR, $5,800 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key statistics
- Week 1 stats: Three targets, one reception, 18 receiving yards, one touchdown
- Data for week 1: target rate of 17.65%, target red zone rate of 100%, an end zone target.
- Individual matchup (vs. Rasul Douglas): 12% objectives per route, 100% capture rate, 0.16 Fantasy points per route traveled, per PFF.
I’m not necessarily to like anyone on the Bears offense tonight, but I don’t hate to try Equanimeous St. Brown as another value play. St. Brown caught one of Justin Fields’ two touchdowns on Sunday. While Darnell Mooney is likely to emerge as the number one option for Chicago, St. Brown appeared to be number two, mustering a similar target share on Sunday. He’ll be up against Rasul Douglas for a lot of his snaps tonight, and while I think Douglas is a good corner, he tends to get burnt deep. I’ll be looking for St. Brown to get behind Douglas and make some big plays tonight.
Other flexible options: Aaron Jones, David Montgomery, Sammy Watkins
DFS Value Sets
Christian Watson – WR, $4,600 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key statistics
- Week 1 stats: Four targets, two receptions, 34 receiving yards.
- Week 1 data: 11.43% target rate, 16.67% red zone target rate.
- Individual match: N/A
Adding to Green Bay’s poor offensive performance last Sunday, Watson dropped a touchdown pass after getting behind his defenseman. This effectively killed Green Bay’s momentum as they struggled to do anything afterwards. Despite that, Watson showed great breakaway speed to get behind the corner, and we should take that as a positive here. It’s definitely a boom or bust game, but I’m optimistic that Watson will be looking to bounce back from his lackluster Week 1.
Green Bay Packers – D/ST, $4,400 (DK), $10,500 (FD)
Key statistics
- Week 1 stats: One sack, zero interceptions, zero fumble recoveries.
I mentioned earlier that I’m not particularly high on anyone on the Chicago offense. With that, I’ll field a good chunk of Green Bay’s defense tonight. Although they had a relatively lackluster performance on Sunday, with Justin Jefferson tearing up their defense, they managed to hold Minnesota to just 23 points. The Bears’ offense isn’t nearly as explosive as Minnesota’s, and Green Bay’s defense should prove to be a solid value play.
Other value games: Mason Crosby, Dante Pettis, Cairo Santos
Enjoy your Sunday and good luck everyone!
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