NFL Cheat: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Pick, Predictions, Week 9 Betting Odds



It’s no coincidence that week 8 (mostly) took place on Halloween. It was quite a bloodbath from a betting standpoint, as the Underdogs got an incredible 11-4 ATS. Overall for the season, they are 69-53 ATS, with a rate of 57%! Let’s take a look at the week 9 chart and all things fancy and daily betting.

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Largest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite moneyline

Bison Tickets (-14; -1000) against Jacksonville Jaguars (+650)

Betting trends:
Road record Bills 2021: 2-1
Road record Bills 2021 when favored: 1-1
Bills 2021 Record ATS: 4-2-1
2021 ATS Bills record when favored: 3-2-1

2021 Jaguars home record: 0-3
Jaguars 2021 home record as outsiders: 0-3
2021 Jaguars ATS Record: 2-5
Jaguars 2021 ATS record as outsiders: 2-4

The Bills were favorites at -14 last week against the Dolphins and barely managed to cover, winning the game by 15 points. It didn’t go well for most of the game as it was tied 3-3 before half-time. Fortunately, for the Bills fans, they scored 23 points in the second half while keeping the Dolphins just eight points for cover. Even with that, the Bills still cover by the league’s highest average margin at +9.4 points, followed closely by the Cardinals at +9.1. The Bills have also climbed to the top of the league in points scored per game at 32.7, barely edging the Buccaneers at 32.5 and the Cowboys at 32.1. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have been one of the most generous offensive teams allowed, averaging 29 points per game, the fifth-best scoring in the league.

The Bills shouldn’t have much trouble moving the ball against the Jaguars. In opposing quarterbacks, the Jaguars are averaging 22.7 DKFP, 289 passing yards (8.94 yards per passing attempt) and 16.4 rushing yards. The pass rush is rated below the league average, which is a big part of why they are averaging just 1.6 sacks per game (29th). Josh Allen ($ 8,200), who is the most expensive QB on the slate, has been under pressure on 36% of his dropbacks, which ranks 10th among qualifying quarterbacks. When Allen is working with a clean pocket, he completes 74.2% (80.1% adjusted) of his passes averaging 7.3 YPA and nine of his 17 touchdowns. Popular options for pairing Allen will of course be Stefon Diggs ($ 7,700) and Cole Beasley ($ 5,400) who shot 13 targets last week. The two draw extremely favorable clashes in the cover, with Diggs seeing CB Tyson Campbell and Beasley against CB Tre Herndon. Campbell is clearing an average of 16.5 YPR and a hit rate of 78% while Herndon is at 12 YPR and a hit rate of 94.7% on 19 targets. It will be difficult to erase the bills on this slate.

Other notable favorites: Denver Broncos (+310) To Dallas Cowboys (-9; -410)

Best DraftKings Sports Bets Projected total

Los Angeles Chargers (-2; -135) to Philadelphia Eagles (+115) Over / Under: 50

Betting trends:
Chargers road record 2021: 2-1
2021 Chargers road record among favorites: n / a
Record Over / Under 2021 Chargers: 2-5
2021 Chargers Over / Under Records as Favorites: 2-2

Eagles 2021 home record: 0-3
Eagles 2021 home record as underdogs: 0-3
2021 Eagles Record Over / Under: 4-4
Eagles 2021 record Over / Under as underdogs: 3-4

The Chargers and Eagles come out of very different weeks leading up to this game. The Eagles, who many thought (including me) would give the Lions their first win of the season, wiped out that team by a score of 44-6. Meanwhile, the Chargers, who finished -3.5 favorites against the Patriots, lost by a score of 27-24. As you can see, neither team managed to overtake the match total, with a total of 6-9 (not pleasant). On average, these teams combine for 50 points per game, which is exactly where that game’s total is.

I think this game has a legitimate chance of going under 50 points. Both teams did well against the pass but struggled to stop the race. Both teams are in the top five for fantastic points allocated to that position, the Chargers at 24.2 per game and the Eagles at 23.1. Both teams also allowed over 100 rushing yards in all but three of their games. The Eagles lead the ball more than the Chargers, doing so on 43 percent of their play calls. If both teams used the ball more, it would result in a much slower game, which is always a good thing for the minuses. The Eagles ran the ball a ton against the Lions, doing it 46 times as Jalen hurts ($ 6,700) only threw the ball 14 times. While I don’t think they’ll perform at this rate again, it certainly opened your eyes when you consider this week’s game. I think the underside is the game here and would do it at 50 or 49.5.

Another notable total: Minnesota Vikings (+215) To Baltimore Ravens (-6; -265) O / U 50.

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Last update: Friday, November 5, 4:30 p.m.

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over / under.

Teams against spread:

Top ATS Teams

Team Save ATS +/-
Team Save ATS +/-
Dallas Cowboys 7-0 8.6
Green Bay Packers 7-1 -0.4
Arizona Cardinals 6-2 9.1
Bison Tickets 4-2 9.4
Las Vegas Adventurers 4-3 2.9

The worst ATS teams

Team Save ATS +/-
Team Save ATS +/-
Kansas City Chiefs 2-6 -7.3
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-5 -7.4
Miami dolphins 2-5 -4.9
San Francisco 49ers 2-5 -3.3
Baltimore Ravens 3-4 0

Higher / lower team records:

Best team on records

Team No more recording Total +/-
Team No more recording Total +/-
Dallas Cowboys 5-2 3.4
Las Vegas Adventurers 4-3 1.9
Atlanta Falcons 4-3 1.2
San Francisco 49ers 4-3 1.6
Baltimore Ravens 4-3 1.3

Worst team on records

Team No more recording Total +/-
Team No more recording Total +/-
Green Bay Packers 2-6 -3.5
Denver Broncos 2-6 -6
Carolina Panthers 2-6 -5.2
Los Angeles Chargers 2-5 -0.9
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-5 -0.4

Target report

Player Team Opponent of the week 8 Avg. TPG Average YPT
Player Team Opponent of the week 8 Avg. TPG Average YPT
Tyreek Hill KC FR 11.3 8.2
Davante Adams FR KC 10.4 10.2
Deebo Samuel SF ARZ 10.3 11.4
Dj moore AUTO BORN 10.1 8
Keenan Allen LAKE RPS 9.9 7.2
Stefon Diggs BUF JAX 9.3 7.7
Justin jefferson MIN BALL 9 8.9
Travis Kelce KC FR 8.9 7.9
Brandin cooks HOU MIA 8.8 8.4
Darren waller LV NYG 8.8 7.1

Quarterback to build around

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings, $ 7,300 – That price on Jackson seems pretty affordable, as it’s the cheapest it’s been all season. With a salary of $ 8,000 in the second week, Jackson’s fantastic production hasn’t slowed down since that time. He’s topped DKFP 20 in all but one game this season and just won a 23.08 game against the Bengals in their last game. As he continues to grow as a passer, Jackson has excelled on the court, averaging 68.6 rushing yards and 6.3 ypc. The Vikings haven’t faced many moving quarterbacks so far, but have seen Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold go over 30 rushing yards in these clashes. Overall, the Vikings hover around the league average against the run, dropping an average of 4.4 YPC. As a six-point favorite, I love this place for Jackson with his lowest pay this season.

Wide receiver to pair it with

Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens vs. Minnesota Vikings, $ 6,000 – While Jackson has a season-low salary, Brown matched his high this week. It’s not a tough salary to work at at $ 6,000, especially for someone who averages over eight targets per game. Brown also draws one of the most favorable clashes of this game against CB Bashaud Breeland on the cover. Breeland has been roasted in the blanket so far, averaging 14.6 YPR over 30 catches (45 targets) and four touchdowns scored against. As you would imagine, Brown leads the Ravens’ receivers in Air Yards with 908, which gives him an aDOT of 15.9. He’s one of the highest in the league among wide receivers with at least 30 targets. With that clash in mind, Brown is well positioned to present numbers against this Vikings secondary.

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