NFL Cheat: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Pick, Predictions, Week 11 Betting Odds


Week 11 is here in the building! The board is a lot more attractive than what we’ve seen over the past couple of weeks, so let’s dive right into it.

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Largest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite moneyline

Cleveland browns (-11; -525) against Detroit Lions (+385)

Betting trends:
2021 Browns home record: 3-2
2021 Browns home record when favored: 3-2
Browns 2021 ATS Record: 5-5
Browns 2021 ATS record when favored: 2-3

Lions road record 2021: 0-4-1
2021 Lions road record as underdogs: 0-4-1
Lions ATS Record 2021: 5-4
Lions 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 5-4

It looks like a pretty big gap for a Lions team that has covered most of the time this season. The Lions have literally covered and then not covered for consecutive weeks all season. If you follow that trend, it would be a week they would NOT cover, having done so in a draw against the Steelers. You’ll also notice the Browns haven’t been strong ATS when they are favorites this season, with just 2-3. As favorites, they failed to cover the Texans (-13.5), Cardinals (-3) and Steelers (-5).

As the Lions continue to chase that elusive first win, they covered 55 percent of the time. Right now the question is, who will be under the center? Jared Goff ($ 5,100) was sidelined this week due to an oblique injury, which means Tim Boyle ($ 4,000) could start after being activated out of IR. While the Browns have faced a significant number of injuries, their high school isn’t one of them. The Browns’ defensive numbers plummeted after the Patriots parted them last week as they averaged over 10 yards per passing attempt. No team has been in double digits against this Browns team. Other than the Pats, only two teams average over 7.8 YPA. Boyle would likely train a lot of runs, screen passes, and checks.

While I think the Lions’ first win is just around the corner, it doesn’t seem like the week to look for it. If Goff is there, I think the Lions can cover that +11 gap. The Lions are 2-1 ATS as at least 10-point dogs this season.

Other notable favorites: Titans of Tennessee (-435; -9.5) vs. Houston Texans (+330)

Best DraftKings Sports Bets Projected total

Dallas Cowboys (+120) to Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5; -140) Over / Under: 56.5

Betting trends:
2021 Cowboys road record: 3-1
Cowboys road record 2021 as underdogs: 2-1
2021 Cowboys Record Over / Under: 5-4
Cowboys 2021 Record Over / Under as Outsiders: 1-2

2021 Chiefs home record: 3-2
2021 Chiefs home record as favorites: 3-2
2021 Chiefs Record Over / Under: 5-5
2021 Chiefs Record Over / Under as favorites: 5-5

This total is huge and has increased throughout the week. As of Monday, that game tally stood at 53.5. Since Wednesday it hasn’t been below 55 and peaked at 57. I think we’re getting to 57 again, but we’d be shocked if we got anything higher than that. These teams have combined to be 10-9 overall, but have a combined 1-5 record in their last three games.

I don’t think enough people recognize how good the Cowboys are defensively. We haven’t seen a QB throw for more than 249 passing yards in four straight weeks and have allowed just four passing touchdowns in that span. CB Anthony Brown in particular, according to Pro Football Focus, is one of the top-rated corners when it comes to coverage. The boys also exhibit a fantastic passing rush which could be a big factor in this game given that Patrick Mahomes ($ 7,600) was under pressure on 33.1% of its losses. In this scenario, he has an average of 6.5 YPA, five of his 10 interceptions, and an adjusted completion percentage of 61.5%. That said, the Chiefs are still averaging 26.2 points per game, which ranks them 10th in the league.

I think this game has a chance to sink. I’d hate to bet it and wouldn’t sweat this one, but the Cowboys side defense is my reasoning. I think that total is too inflated and is a bit of a reaction to the Chiefs’ dominant win last week over the Raiders. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw something like a 30-24 game which would bring us closer to the total but just simply miss it. The Cowboys also only throw the ball 56 percent of the time, which is on the lower end of the league spectrum. I just think we have more reason to love the underside than the top here.

Another notable total: Cincinnati Bengals (-1; -115) To Las Vegas Adventurers (-105) O / U 50.5

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Last update: Friday, November 19, 8:30 a.m.

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over / under.

Teams against spread:

Top ATS Teams

Team Save ATS +/-
Team Save ATS +/-
Green Bay Packers 9-1 1.2
Dallas Cowboys 8-1 7.7
Titans of Tennessee 7-3 5.2
Arizona Cardinals 7-3 6.2
Bison Tickets 5-3 7

The worst ATS teams

Team Save ATS +/-
Team Save ATS +/-
Washington football team 2-7 -3.4
New York Jets 2-7 -7.2
Kansas City Chiefs 3-7 -3.5
San Francisco 49ers 3-6 -2
Baltimore Ravens 3-6 -1.7

Plus / minus team records:

Best team on records

Team No more recording Total +/-
Team No more recording Total +/-
New York Jets 6-3 6.4
Titans of Tennessee 6-4 0.3
Cleveland browns 6-4 0.1
Indianapolis Colts 6-4 3.5
Dallas Cowboys 5-4 1.2

Worst team on records

Team No more recording Total +/-
Team No more recording Total +/-
Seattle Seahawks 1-7 -8.2
Green Bay Packers 2-8 -8.8
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-7 -4.8
Carolina Panthers 3-7 -5
Detroit Lions 3-6 -1.4

Target report

Player Team Opponent of the Week 11 Avg. TPG Average YPT
Player Team Opponent of the Week 11 Avg. TPG Average YPT
Tyreek Hill KC DAL 11.1 7.7
Davante Adams FR MIN 10.9 8.8
Stefon Diggs BUF INDIANA 9.6 8.7
Deebo Samuel SF JAX 9.6 11.4
Dj moore AUTO WAS 9.5 7.4
Terry mclaurin WAS AUTO 9.3 7.5
Brandin cooks HOU TEN 9.3 7.6
Marquise Brown BALL CHI 9.1 8.8
Travis Kelce KC DAL 8.9 8.4
Darren waller LV CIN 8.9 7.4

Quarterback to build around

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $ 7,200 – I mentioned earlier that I thought his game had a good chance of going down. Maybe I’m wrong and that would be nice. Regardless of whether the total hits the end or not, you can’t deny that the Cowboys and Prescott are in one of the best matchups of the week. This defense of the Chiefs is one of the most generous in the league. The opposing quarterbacks are averaging 23.5 DKFP, 266 passing yards, 8 YPA and 17 passing TDs. Even with Dak not using his legs like we’ve seen in the past, he’s still averaging 24 DKFP over the season. It’s because of how good he was in the air. His 70.3% completion percentage is the second best in the league while his adjusted completion of 77.1% is 9th. With an average of 8.2 YPA, Dak is coming down the field at a very high pace. He’s also ranked in the top 10 in several categories when he crosses over 20 yards, including five of his 20 touchdowns. He is expected to succeed with that Chiefs secondary in Week 11.

Wide receiver to pair it with

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $ 7,600 – It’s the most expensive salary we’ve seen Lamb all season. Someone who started the season at $ 5,700, it has been a slow climb for Lamb, who solidified his place as a WR1 on this team. He just won one of his best games of the season last week against the Falcons, where he caught six of his seven targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Now he faces a Chiefs secondary that has been scored 11 times by opposing receivers. On the cover, Lamb will see CB Rashad Fenton, who has been targeted 25 times, allowing 16 receptions and 8.5 YPC. It’s one of the toughest clashes in this game, but the volume Lamb receives is pretty high. He has had at least six targets in five straight games, hitting 11 two weeks ago.

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