MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 8
Opening Day was so huge they had to make a sequel. Baseball games will take place throughout the day, but this article will focus on the five-game slate that begins at 7:05 p.m. ET. So, you know, let’s go.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Moneyline’s Biggest Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Charlie Morton, $8,400, Atlanta Braves (-190) against Cincinnati Reds (+160) — The Braves were also the biggest favorites yesterday AND IT DIDN’T GO WELL! The Reds fell off the rafters like Sting used to do and put six points on the board against the reigning world champions. Tonight, despite a lopsided game, the line is very similar to what we saw on opening day.
The Reds deploy Reiver Sanmartin ($7,800), who will be making his third major league start. He was up for a cup of coffee last season, throwing 11 2⁄3 innings, posting a FIP of 1.80, an 8.4 K/9 and a swing-and-miss rate of 11%. Sanmartin threw almost all four pitches evenly, with a fastball (28.2%), a slider (27.6%), a change (24.3%) and a lead (19.9%) on the season last. The problem for him tonight will be against a very solid formation against southpaws. The man who would have topped the list against lefties last year is their latest acquisition Matt Olson ($5,500). In 254 plate appearances against them, he had a 159 wRC+, a .338 ISO and a .398 wOBA. It’s hard to trust Sanmartin against this roster, especially for someone who averages less than one strikeout per inning throughout his minor league career. If you’re willing to pay full price, the Braves feel like a safe game with the Reds’ starter talent dropping dramatically from yesterday.
Highest projected total
Houston Astros (+100; 4.5 teams in total) to Los Angeles Angels (-120; 4.5 teams total) 9.5 runs— Last season, they were two of the best teams to reach the total of their games. The Astros did it 56% of the time (3rd) while the Angels were right behind them at 54.7% (4th). Tonight Features Jake Odorizzi ($5,800) versus Reid Detmers ($6,600). Not exactly two starters I would consider second in the rotation. We didn’t see much of either pitcher during spring training, as Detmers pitched 5 2⁄3 innings and Odorizzi only threw two. Both did parallel sessions to increase their pitch count, but I wouldn’t be surprised if either went deeper into the game.
With that in mind, we could see a rather heavy pen game. I think it’s fair to say that both relievers will be strong on both sides this season, so I wouldn’t necessarily call that an advantage for either side. On the contrary, the offense could occur early in it and subside afterwards. Personally, I’d be more comfortable taking the top 1H total, in which both teams have a 2.5 total with +100 for the top on either side.
New York food to Washington nationals – Yesterday saw a delayed start and we could do it all over again. It’s not a completely safe game, as storms could arise during the evening. Look for a weather update closer to the first pitch.
April 8, 2022 Split bets
Divides to start
Pitchers versus left-handed batsmen
Worst against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Josiah Gray, 6.61, .339
Jon Gray, 4.48, .335
Jake Odorizzi, 4.26, .335
Best against LHB, wOBA, FIP
Charlie Morton, 2.94, .255
Sean Manee, 3.21, .255
Max Scherzer, 3.28, .264
Pitchers versus right-handed batsmen
Worst against RHB, FIP, wOBA
Josiah Gray, 5.50, .355
Jake Odorizzi, 4.64, .299
Jon Gray, 3.89, .326
Best against RHB, wOBA, FIP
Max Scherzer, 2.68, .233
Jose Berrios, 2.99, .240
Charlie Morton, 3.40, .271
Pitcher to build around
Charlie Morton, Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds, $8,400 – I think it’s fair to say that the pitching selection on this slate is pretty lackluster. Although the Reds roughed up Max Fried last night, I think they will have problems with Morton tonight. Fried had problems keeping batters away from the Reds last night despite scoring twice on several occasions. Morton is a much better pitcher at bat, posting a 10.7 K/9 and a 12.3 percent swing-and-miss rate last season. When Morton was ahead in the count last season, which was often the case, he held opposing hitters to a .245 wOBA and 37.2% K%.
Stud hitter to pay
Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros, $5,200 — When you think of the power of the Angels range, Walsh won’t be the first or even the second name you’ll think of. However, he struggled against right-handers last season, hitting .415 wOBA, .256 ISO and 166 wRC+. Those numbers were just as good at home against right-handers with .404 wOBA, .232 ISO and 159 wRC+. He will face Odorizzi, who has always had problems with lefties. Last season, Odorizzi was tagged with a 4.26 FIP (5.20 xFIP), a .335 wOBA and five of 16 homers he allowed. After not having a ton of work in spring training, I think he will have a hard time getting out of the gate.
Save big while drawing
Robinson Cano, New York Mets at Washington Nationals, $2,400 — If Cano is going to shoot the start against right-handers, he has solid value at $2,400. Yesterday we saw him hit sixth in the “Mets” order and go 2 for 4 with two singles, two runs scored and a walk. A great day of 12 DKFPs for just $2,000. Tonight he will face Josiah Gray ($7,600), who posted really mediocre numbers against both sides of the plate. His 6.61 FIP is the worst against lefties on this list to go along with a .339 wOBA. It won’t take much for Cano to return value.
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