MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 7
Oh, hi everyone. I didn’t think we were going to do this at all in 2022. Yet here we are, preparing for opening day. Which, by the way, already has two postponements, so thanks for nothing about that. Anyway, let’s talk a bit about baseball.
Follow me on Twitter or you are not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24
DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Moneyline’s Biggest Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Max Fried, $9,000, Atlanta Braves (-210) against Cincinnati Reds (+175) — First off, if you’re a Reds fan, my heart goes out to you. This last offseason was not deserved and I hope this team will get back to where it should be, quickly.
That said, they are going to be a team to pick this season. We can start right away on opening day when they take on Fried. If we look at their last spring training that they rolled out, this team hit a lot against lefties last year. Five of the nine players on the roster had a K% of at least 23.4%. When it came to power, this group produced few counter-leftists, with only one of them, Kyle Farmer ($2,900) displaying an ISO greater than .200. CMR+? Forget it. Six of the night were at 94 or less.
This makes a strong case for Fried, who showed excellent control (2.23 BB/9), limited home runs (0.81 HR/9) and boasted a solid 3.31 FIP on the season. . He’s not the biggest batting producer, posting a K/9 below 9.0 in all but one of his five seasons, but he still averages 16.6 DKFP. It’s fair to say it’s a little overpriced with this kind of fantastic average, but this slate looks poorly priced top to bottom. If the Mariners and Twins hadn’t been postponed, you would have had reigning Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray at $6,300. As if that made sense (but would have taken it gladly).
Highest projected total
San Diego Padres (-170) to Arizona Diamonds (+150) 9 races — Last season, these were two of the top teams to hit the most in the game last season. The Diamondbacks led the league with 57.4% (89-66-7) while the Padres were sixth at 54.4% (86-72-4). This match should feature Yu Darvish ($9,500) and Madison Bumgarner ($5,900) in the last scheduled game of the night.
It’s true that the Padres weren’t too effective against lefties last season. They finished 24th in wRC+ and wOBA and 26th in ISO. That being said, they had no problem hitting Bumgarner last year. Up to 17 2⁄3 innings, they scored it for 10 runs on 22 hits (eight for extra bases). Bumgarner had a 5.04 FIP and a .369 wOBA in those starts. We should see more of the same this time around. This Padres team SHOULD be better against southpaws overall, but time will tell.
I’m also not opposed to taking over the Padres’ team total if you’re not comfortable with the Diamondbacks offense. Yes, the D-Backs were the best team to hit the most, but that’s also largely because opposing teams were scoring 5.51 points per game against them. It was the second highest average in the league. In runs scored, the D-Backs were at 4.1, who ranked 24th. This lineup is essentially the same as last season and you’ll be hard-pressed to name the top nine in the lead.
New York food at Washington nationals – Light rain is forecast around the first pitch but doesn’t appear to be enough to cause any disruption.
Divides to start
Pitchers versus left-handed batsmen
Worst against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Tylor Megill, 6.60, .418
JT Brubaker, 5.34, .353
Madison Bumgarner, 5.08, .304
Best against LHB, wOBA, FIP
Tyler Mahle, 2.70, .257
Patrick Corbin, 2.78, .268
Shane Bieber, 3.13, .330
Pitchers versus right-handed batsmen
Worst against RHB, FIP, wOBA
Patrick Corbin, 6.22, .387
Zack Greinke, 5.25, .351
Tyler Mahle, 4.99, .357
Best against RHB, wOBA, FIP
Shohei Ohtani, 2.43, .245
Shane Bieber, 2.93, .257
Tylor Megill, 3.24, .250
Pitcher to build around
Shane Biber, Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals$8,300 – I think we forget how good Bieber is. An injury-plagued season kept him to just 16 starts last season, but he still put together a solid line. Until 96 2⁄3 innings, Bieber had a 3.03 FIP, a 12.4 K/9, a 3.07 BB/9, and a 1.02 HR/9. His stuff also remains nasty, with a swing-and-miss rate of 17.4% last season. On Thursday, he will face a Royals side that will be exciting but not overly competitive. Despite being tough to take down, they only posted a .298 wOBA, .145 ISO, and 86 wRC+ against right-handers. Of the 16 starts he made last season, he faced this club three times and produced a 3.17 FIP, a 12.9 K/9 and a 0.328 wOBA against them as a 15-year-old. 1⁄3 sleeves.
Stud hitter to pay
Pete Alonso, New York food at Washington nationals$4,800 — I love this spot for Alonso against a very, very impactful Patrick Corbin ($6,700). That says a lot about the state of the Nationals rotation when someone like Corbin is your number one option. Corbin was nothing short of abysmal last season, especially at home. The opposing right-handers at Nationals Park scored him for a .401 wOBA, 17 of 37 home runs he allowed and 17 of 32 doubles. Corbin’s overall FIP against right-handers came in at 6.22 on the season, making him a top choice to stack up against. Alonso could easily get off to a quick start on opening day.
Save big while drawing
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamonds$3,400 — This is a very cheap price for someone who has always hit left-handers very well. Who better to hit than Bumgarner? ! It was very obvious that once Bumgarner was no longer in San Francisco, he would miss those big, comfortable stadiums. This translated to a 4.47 FIP, a 1.36 HR/9 at home last season. Myers didn’t produce the pop we’ve seen in his bat before he was someone who in his career has an ISO of .195 against lefties. In what should be the most branded game on the slate, a cheap part of the Padres range seems necessary.
For sports bettingmeeting on DraftKings Sportsbook Where download the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
Major League Baseball trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of the applicable MLB entity. All rights reserved.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, you can access crisis counseling and referral services by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY), visit OPGR.org (OR), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (NT), or 1-888-532-3500 (VIRGINIA).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). Physically present in AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. To see draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.