MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 22
Friday is here. The baseball is there. This article is here.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Moneyline’s Biggest Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jameson Taillon, $7,200, New York Yankees (-190) against Cleveland Indians (+160) — Dude, I’ll tell you. The Yankees as big slate favorites don’t sit well with me. Give that Guardians team credit, they’re stomping the ball so far. They currently rank first in the league in runs scored (68) and undercut .280 / .346 / .442, all of which are league-leading or top-three. While it clearly won’t last forever, I wouldn’t go out of my way to support a -190 favorite against them.
We’ve only seen Taillon pitch for 9 2/3 innings this season, producing a 4.40 FIP (3.72 ERA) with a 7.4 K/9 and a 0.93 BB/9. The biggest hurdle for Taillon in his career has been facing left-handers. They can throw a few good bats at him that hit that side if it’s natural or as a hitter. Jose Ramirez ($5,800) has already gotten off to a strong start this season with four homers, 20 RBIs and a .404 ISO. I’m not saying the Guardians are going to come into this game and crush the Yankees by any means, but I just don’t see them as the biggest favorite on the slate.
Highest projected total
San Francisco Giants (-130; 4.5 total per team) to Washington nationals (+110; 3.5 teams overall) 8.5 runs— On a list that includes 13 games, not a single one has an over/under (as I write this early afternoon) higher than 8.5. Odd? Not really if you look at how the MLB season started. Under bets hit in 60.3% of all games played. I think we are finally seeing a reaction to the understatement rate.
That said, this one has the most juice over 8.5 at -120. The Giants are well positioned against the Nationals and more specifically, Patrick Corbin ($6,700). Surprisingly, in his first two starts, he didn’t allow a home run, which deserves a round of applause. That said, he allowed plenty of production, as evidenced by his 10 runs on 17 hits he gave up. The Giants have very good bats against lefties and I wouldn’t hesitate to top their team total of 4.5 points. Getting men on base against Corbin is key, as his numbers increase dramatically in this situation. Since the start of last season, with men at the base, not even in the goalscoring position, JUST at the base, he has a FIP of 5.74, a 1.8 HR/9 and only a 6.5 K /9.
Editor’s Note: Tonight’s game between the Rockies and Tigers has been postponed due to inclement weather.
Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers— It’s more of a wait-and-see approach. Tonight will either be problem-free or could be a total washout. Very good analysis here by me but I didn’t go to school to be a meteorologist.
April 22, 2022 Split bets
follow me on twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.
Divides to start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers through May 1.
Pitchers versus left-handed batsmen
Worst against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Eli Morgan, 5.62, .349
Jameson Taillon, 5.21, .316
Bailey Ober, 4.77, .359
Best against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Ranger Suarez, 1.70, .151
Corey Kluber, 1.92, .246
Trevor Rogers, 2.35, .304
Pitchers versus right-handed batsmen
Worst against RHB, FIP, wOBA
Patrick Corbin, 6.22, .387
Tarik Skubal, 5.69, .341
Ross Stripling, 5.54, .347
Best vs RHB, FIP, wOBA
Trevor Rogers, 2.60, .259
Freddy Peralta, 2.62, .261
Julio Urias, 2.97, .263
Pitcher to build around
Justin Verlander, Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays$10,500 – I know, Verlander is the most expensive slate option. Not exactly revolutionary to take it, but I like this game against the Blue Jays. This lineup, which we all said was going to be big and scary this season, hasn’t exactly played out that way yet. In fact, they currently sit 16th in runs scored (52) while slashing .252/.315/.411. They also wobbled a lot at this point, drawing walks at one of the lowest rates in the league at 6.6%. Verlander looks great in his first two starts and his batting advantage remains. Without real slam dunks on that slate for pitching, Verlander will be my guy.
Stud hitter to pay
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Miami Marlins to Atlanta Braves$5,500 — Despite hitting as well as he has so far this season, it’s been hard to justify using Chisholm from a fantasy perspective. He (for some reason) was placed at the bottom of the lineup, either eighth or ninth. Maybe the Marlins finally realized this wasn’t the best place for him and put him in the No. 1 spot. He responded with 16 DKFP, hitting a two-point shot while collecting his fifth game with fantastic double-digit points. It would be great if he were in the lead again, because he faces Kyle Wright ($9,300)which is outrageously expensive and has a career .389 wOBA and 6.12 FIP against lefties.
Save big while drawing
Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins, $3,000 — This game has a lot of plays tonight and the Braves are full of them. I don’t understand why their price is so low but I won’t complain. It was a very slow start for Trevor Rogers ($6,500), which has already been touched up for 10 runs on 10 hits at 6 2⁄3 sleeves. Ozuna is someone who has historically broken left-handed throwing and if you go back to 2020, posted a ridiculous .527 wOBA .511 ISO against LHP.
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