MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 21
Thursday brings us a lot of early afternoon baseball, so we better get going! WE DO NOT HAVE TIME TO LOSE !!!!
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Moneyline’s Biggest Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jordan Montgomery, $6,900, New York Yankees (-165) to Detroit Tigers (+145) — No one on this list is a heavy favorite, but the Yankees take the crown this afternoon. They’ll send Montgomery to the mound, making his third start of the season. In two previous ones against the Orioles and Red Sox, he got a total of 8 1⁄3 innings allowing three runs on seven hits with six strikeouts and three walks. It is launched as advertised so far, as its FIP of 3.07 is slightly lower than its ERA of 3.24. This Tigers team has seen some of the least action against left-handed throwing at this point, recording just 93 plate appearances. For reference, the Orioles lead the league with 189. The Tigers have a .316 wOBA with a .076 ISO and a 110 wRC+ at this rate. That said, this club has good bats against lefties if you look at their stats from last season. guys like Jonathan Schoop ($4,300) and Eric Haase ($3,600) had some of the best numbers on the team against lefties.
While I’m fine with taking the Yankees there from a betting standpoint, I’m not interested in Montgomery from a fantasy standpoint. Although there are only two starts, his strikeouts have gone down and he’s not generating the swings and misses we’ve seen in the past. Overall, his speed has dropped slightly (92.7 on his fastball last year, 91.8 so far) and he’s seen more contact for strikeouts. Again, it’s very, very early, but I just don’t see the need to use it, even at $6,900.
Highest projected total
Toronto Blue Jays (-110; 4.5 total per team) to Boston Red Sox (-110; 4.5 teams overall) 9 races— Not really a favorite in this one, because Kevin Gausman ($8,900) is ready to face Tanner Houck ($7,800). For two teams that were expected to score a lot of points this season, neither team really walked through the gates and made it. In fact, the Blue Jays and Red Sox scored nearly identical runs with the Jays at 49 (T-16th) and the Red Sox at 48 (18th). The Red Sox in particular have hit a bit of an offensive wall, so to speak, scoring just six points in the last three games.
Gausman was pretty unlucky in his Jays debut. Despite an ERA of 4.22, his FIP currently sits at 0.45. Yeah. In 10 2/3 innings, he allowed five runs on 14 hits with 14 strikeouts. So clearly defense has been the issue here for Gausman. He gave up hard contact at 38.7% but the plays behind him could have been made.
At this rate, though it sounds strange to say, it’s hard to trust these teams to hit the most. Both teams combined are 8-16 this season, which is among the worst in the league. At nine points, I’d be inclined to take the least in this game.
Baltimore Orioles to Oakland Athletics — Thunderstorms are forecast throughout the afternoon. I’m not sure this game ever gets started, but it’s worth a look before the first pitch.
April 21, 2022 Split bets
follow me on twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.
Divides to start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers through May 1.
Pitchers versus left-handed batsmen
Worst against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Zach Davies, 5.88, .356
Michael Pineda, 4.51, .346
Zach Plesac, 4.40, .297
Best against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Tyler Wells, 1.93, .208
Kevin Gausman, 2.71, .263
Tanner Houck, 3.23, .282
Pitchers versus right-handed batsmen
Worst against RHB, FIP, wOBA
Josh Rogers, 7.54, .396
Carlos Carrasco, 6.32, .396
Paul Blackburn, 5.45, .364
Best vs RHB, FIP, wOBA
Tanner Houck, 2.00, .261
Kevin Gausman, 3.29, .267
Dylan Cease, 3.34, .292
Pitcher to build around
Carlos Carrasco, New York food vs. San Francisco Giants$9,800 – Yesterday I wrote Chris Bassitt and it didn’t exactly go to plan. Maybe I’m just a glutton for punishment but I’m going back to another Mets pitcher against the Giants. Carrasco has looked fantastic to start the year and he is credited with feeling 100% in his elbow again. Carrasco said before the season that he had full range of motion again, and it had improved his throw significantly. He allowed just one run on five hits and 13 of 10 strikeouts 2⁄3 innings against the Diamondbacks and Nationals so far. It also saw a large increase in swings and misses, generating a rate of 15.8%. While the Giants can be a tough offense to play against, they also offer plenty of batting advantages.
Stud hitter to pay
Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox to Cleveland Guardians$5,900 — Anderson has been a fantasy-producing machine ever since he suspended his two-game suspension to start the season. Since his return, he has posted at least 7.0 DKFP in six of his eight games. Today he will assume Zach Plesac ($8,300), who against right-handers last season had a .329 wOBA, 5.01 FIP and 16 of 23 homers he allowed. At the rate Anderson is getting on base, this should be another place to pay him off at shortstop.
Save big while drawing
Christian Walker, Arizona Diamonds to Washington nationals$3,000 — The D-Backs were big for us yesterday, so let’s go back one more time. Walker, who cleans bats, is just too cheap when facing a southpaw. Admittedly, his numbers against southpaws were pretty poor, but he has historically hit them very well. In 2020 he had a .330 wOBA with a .196 ISO and a 103 wRC+. At just $3,000, I’m more than willing to take a chance on him at a top roster spot and against a pitcher with a 7.54 FIP and .396 wOBA against right-handers last season.
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