MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 19
Tuesday always brings a massive slate of baseball games and tonight is no different. With 11 members on the board, we have a lot to discuss. So stop reading this useless intro.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Moneyline’s Biggest Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Corbin Burnes, $10,500, Milwaukee Brewers (-275) against Pittsburgh Pirates (+220) — The defending National League Cy Young Award winner is set to take the mound for the third time this season and the first against the Pirates. He faced that index twice last season, pitching 11 1/3 innings, allowing four runs on 13 hits and 13 strikeouts, giving him a 3.08 FIP, a 10.3 K/9 and a 3.2 BB/9. He wasn’t exactly dominating them but he wasn’t struggling either. Burnes rebounded well in his last start against the Orioles after the Cubs gave him a bit of a rough ride, scoring him for three runs on four hits and just four strikeouts in five innings. The O’s, who can’t hit right-handers, struck out eight in seven shutout innings. So far this season, the Pirates have been one of the most generous teams when it comes to strikeouts, posting a 25% K% against right-handers to go with a .318 wOBA, .117 ISO and 102 wRC+. This should be seen as a good spot for Burnes, but to be fair, from a fantasy standpoint, tonight’s slate is full of good throwing options. I’d back the Brewers on the starting line here at -1.5 (-125) if you’re not looking to call the big money line.
Highest projected total
Philadelphia Phillies (-130; 6.5 total per team) to Colorado Rockies (+110; 5.5 teams overall) 11.5 runs— It wasn’t fun if you got the upper hand at Coors Field last night as these teams combined to score five points despite the over/under at 11. Tonight’s total is even higher at 11.5 with Kyle Gibson ($6,600) confronted Kyle Freeland ($5,600). You’ll also notice that both teams’ team totals are a bit higher than last night, with the Phillies at 6.5 and the Rockies at 5.5.
The game to target here SHOULD be the Phillies, but they haven’t been trustworthy so far. Over the last five games, this offense has scored a total of 18 points for an average of 3.6 per game. Unfortunately, 10 of those runs came in one match, which means they are reduced to an average of 2.0 runs per match in the others. Freeland could be the cure, as he’s already pitching his third game at Coors this season. Naturally, he was hit hard as the Cubs and Dodgers hit him for 10 runs on 14 hits with four walks and seven strikeouts in nine innings. He might be unlucky, as his 10.00 ERA is nowhere near his 4.99 FIP, but Freeland hasn’t really pitched well at Coors throughout his career. This Phillies roster is going to hit lefties extremely hard when all is said and done and I’d be more interested in them against Freeland than the Rockies against Gibson.
That said, I’m hesitant to take over, as Coors Field has hit underside in 56.8% of its games since 2021.
No weather worries for tonight!
April 19, 2022 Split bets
follow me on twitter @SBuchanan24 for daily updates on these splits.
Divides to start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers through May 1.
Pitchers versus left-handed batsmen
Worst against LHB, FIP, wOBA
JT Brubaker, 5.34, .353
Framber Valdez, 4.81, .320
Jon Gray, 4.48, .319
Best against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Corbin Burnes, 1.49, .248
Nathan Eovaldi, 2.28, .281
Walker Buhler, 3.34, .261
Pitchers versus right-handed batsmen
Worst against RHB, FIP, wOBA
Justin Steele, 5.99, 0.358
Tyler Gilbert, 5.02, .326
JT Brubaker, 4.99, .329
Best vs RHB, FIP, wOBA
Corbin Burnes, 1.78, .215
Walker Buhler, 2.96, .249
Joe Musgrove, 3.16, .252
Pitcher to build around
Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds$8,600 – At this point, if you’re not aiming against the Reds, you’re wrong. This team is a disaster. Over their last five games, the Reds have averaged 1.6 points. One point six. Like, are you kidding me? How is it possible? Well, whatever, I’ll keep targeting them with Musgrove. This Reds team enters today with the second highest K% at 27.6% while slashing 0.181/0.254/0.287. Seeing those kinds of numbers and Musgrove as the seventh most expensive option on the board is just too good to be true. He is by far my favorite on a list full of great throwing options.
Stud hitter to pay
Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays, $5,000 — It’s a great place to target Bogaerts, who is at Fenway Park against a weak left-handed pitcher. Yusei Kikuchi ($7,800) is set to take the mound for the Blue Jays and hasn’t exactly had an impressive debut. Against the Yankees, he only lasted 3 1⁄3 innings, allowing three runs (two earned) on five hits while walking and striking out two. Kikuchi has very poor first-time numbers in the batting order, posting a 5.48 FIP, 1.6 HR/9 and 5.1 BB/9 with the Mariners last season. He’ll look to fight Bogaerts, who against lefties at Fenway last season had a .399 wOBA, .225 ISO and 151 wRC+.
Save big while drawing
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, $3,400 – Is this a good match for Olson against Walker Buhler ($10,700)? Not exactly, but Olson’s price is absolutely ridiculous. For reference, it was $4,800 last night. It’s not like Olson isn’t hitting either, he’s down .457/.568/.743 in his last 10 games with two homers and four doubles. I don’t have a lot of great stats on why you should play Olson other than the fact that you get a Heart of Order in the Braves lineup at a massive discount. It’s too cheap to pass up.
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