MLB Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Baseball DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for April 15
One of my favorite days for baseball is Friday night. A massive 11-match list is set and we’re going to talk about it.
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DraftKings Sportsbook Game Notes
Moneyline’s Biggest Favorite
Note: This section highlights the pitcher whose team is the biggest favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tony Gonsolin, $8,400, Los Angeles Dodgers (-260) against Cincinnati Reds (+210) — Like last night, the Dodgers are the biggest favorites of the night as they take on the Reds. They made an easy job of it Thursday, winning by a score of 9-3, which included a six-run eighth inning. Tony Gonsolin ($8,400) is set to take the mound for the Dodgers in his second start of the season. He started the year at Coors Field and pitched three innings, allowing one run on five hits and striking out three. He should be a bit more stretched this time around and show more of that batting advantage he has, having posted a 10.5 K/9 last season.
The Reds’ offense didn’t pose much of a threat early on and hit a lot. The 26.1% K% currently ranks 6th in the league while the team undercuts 0.196/0.266/0.330. The Reds also hit for very little early power with an ISO of .134, which ranks them 23rd in the league. On an 11-game slate, I’m not locking Gonsolin as the first pitcher, but he’s certainly a nice compliment, if you’ve got the payday, to some of the other options on the roster.
Highest projected total
Chicago Cubs (+100; 4.5 teams in total) to Colorado Rockies (-120; 4.5 teams total) 10 races— Although it’s an 11-game slate, it almost feels like a carbon copy of last night. The Cubs and Rockies were also the highest projected total on the slate, but only managed to score seven points overall, putting them under the game total of 11. Tonight’s total stands to 10, as we get Marcus Stroman ($9,000) versus Marquez German ($7,900). Stroman is very expensive for someone who doesn’t retire even one batter per inning. Last season he finished with a new K/9 career high, which was just 7.9. That said, Stroman induces a ton of ground balls for strikeouts, with a career-high 57.4%. With all the balls on the ground, Stroman very rarely allows home runs but the inside-out fantasy on him is capped.
Marquez, like the majority of the Rockies’ rotation last season, was better at Coors than they were on the road. In 103 home innings, he had a .278 wOBA, 3.66 FIP and just a .79 HR/9. Honestly, those numbers are nonsense at Coors. His only downside was his second-half numbers, as he posted a combined wOBA of 0.353 and FIP of 4.85. With the way both pitchers threw, I wouldn’t be able to get the upper hand in this game. Personally, I think it’s an overall place to stay.
No weather worries!
April 15, 2022 Split bets
Divides to start
These stats reflect 2021 numbers through May 1.
Pitchers versus left-handed batsmen
Worst against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Vladimir Gutierrez, 6.56, .359
Jordan Lyles, 5.66, .347
Ross Stripling, 4.68, .315
Best against LHB, FIP, wOBA
Carlos Rodon, 1.55, .260
Drawn Rasmussen, 2.45, .239
Tarik Skubal, 2.50, .295
Pitchers versus right-handed batsmen
Worst against RHB, FIP, wOBA
Marco Gonzales, 5.72, .344
Tarik Skubal, 5.69, .341
Ross Stripling, 5.54, .347
Best vs RHB, FIP, wOBA
Freddy Peralta, 2.62, .261
Carlos Rodon, 2.92, .244
Marcus Stroman, 3.31, .286
Pitcher to build around
Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox vs. Tampa Bay Stingrays$10,200 – Rodon is the most expensive option on the board tonight but I really like his game against the Rays. Cease has a massive batting advantage and faces a team that will provide those of the Rays. Last season, the Rays finished with a 23.8% K% against right-handers. Rodon finished last season with a 12.2 K/9 and a swing-and-miss rate of 14.8%. Those strikeouts were on full display in his first outing against the Tigers, sniffing eight to five innings.
Stud hitter to pay
Editor’s note: Yankees OF Aaron Judge is not in the lineup for tonight’s game against the Orioles.
Judge Aaron, New York Yankees to Baltimore Orioles $5,400 — This game for the Yankees overall is good because they face Jordan Lyles ($7,400). On the mound, Lyles delivers very few inside-out hits, continually struggles with home runs and gives up a lot of hard contacts. With this type of profile, it’s quite strange that he joins the Orioles. But get that money, am I right? I mean for someone who pitched half their games in Texas, having a 1.9 HR/9 is pretty bad. With tonight’s game taking place in Baltimore, it’s setting up well for the Yankees. Last season against right-handers, Judge posted a .375 wOBA with a .239 ISO and a 141 wRC+. It’s not just a great place for him, but for the Yankees as a whole.
Save big while drawing
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers$2,400 — One of the best prospects in all of baseball has already made a difference at the major league level. Although he reached second place, the salary received has not yet been sufficiently adjusted, which makes him a very strong value. In the six games he has played, Witt Jr has at least 9.0 DKFP in four of those games, including three extra hits. This will be the first time we see him face a southpaw at the major league level, but Tarik Skubal ($8,200) had a wOBA of 0.341, FIP of 5.69 and 34(!) of the 35 homers he allowed in 2021.
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