Officially welcome to the 2022 fantasy baseball season! Now that an MLB deal is in place, many more fantastic drafts will take place – and we’re here, as always, to guide you through it. Once you reach the final draft rounds, everyone is looking to sign players with an edge that can deliver great return on value. You can afford to start taking a risk or two on a variety of different players, including emerging prospects, overlooked veterans, players returning from injury, or even talented players who may be struggling with playing time. early rounds are critical and the middle rounds form the core of your starting team, but the late rounds are where you have the opportunity to select hidden gems that can play a huge role for your fantasy team.
Today we are looking for late round first basemen for you to consider drafting in your leagues of the season this season. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and become a late draft target you’ll want to prioritize? Read on to see our take.
Our editors have carefully selected these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five insights below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our Industry Leading 2022 Draft Kit. Make sure you subscribe today and start reading all our detailed articles 2022 Player Outlookand many other premium items and tools, available exclusively in our 2022 Draft Kit.
Editor’s note: Our incredible team of writers received five writing awards in total and 13 nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, the best in the industry! Congratulations to all of the winners and nominees, including Best MLB Series, NFL Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer, and Player Notes Writer of the Year. Follow their analysis, rankings and tips throughout the year and win big with RotoBaller!
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San Francisco Giants first baseman Brandon Belt continues to crush baseballs. He finished 2021 with an average of .274, 29 home runs, 59 runs scored, 65 runs, three stolen bases and a 3.3 fWAR in 381 plate appearances. Belt has produced a career-high 17% barrel rate and had over 150 wRC+ in each of the past two seasons. He scored over 70 percentiles in Max Out Speed, Hit %, xwOBA, xSLG, Barrel %, and BB%. The belt has more swing and miss than expected with a 26th percentile puff%, but its 94th percentile chase rate and 90th percentile BB% describe the elite plate discipline that should remain. Belt’s recent production isn’t a misnomer considering his elite barrel rate and plate discipline.
The problem is health. Belt suffered from various injuries throughout his career. ATC is projecting a belt for 505 PA, 26 HR, 69 RBI, 72 runs scored and three bases stolen. The aspect projection of the plate appears high. Belt has exceeded 550 AP only four times in eleven seasons. His current ADP sits at 268, which pushes him to pursue Jonathan Schoop and forward Frank Schwindel. Given Belt’s elite discipline and barrel rate over the past two seasons, he should go next to Anthony Rizzo who is selected around ADP 170. That said, there is a risk of obvious injury with Belt, so fantastic managers know what they’re signing up for.
— Jacob Taylor – RotoBaller
There’s reason to be optimistic with the Red Sox big man this season. Power was never in question, and he posted an elite home run rate in 2022 (25 home runs in 452 AP). The downside so far has been the huge strikeout problem (career 35.8% K%) that has kept his batting average in the dumps. We saw Dalbec begin to reverse this trend slightly in the second half of 2021 as it hit a lower clip of 28.8% from August 1.
It’s still a problematic strikeout rate that’s likely to lead to nothing but a poor batting average, but there’s hope he can hit enough homers and make enough runs for that to happen. worth it. His 20.2% barrel rate and 115.6 max out velocity last year leave no doubt that this guy can hit 40 home runs in the series, and he’s someone worth worth taking a chance at 26 with a low ADP of 224.
— Jon Anderson – Roto Baller
Once the dust settled, Lowe put together a pretty solid line in his first season as a Ranger. He scored 74 runs, hit 18 homers, drove 72, stole eight bases and hit a respectable .264. His expected high walk rate also kept his on-base percentage high at .354. He did all of this largely avoiding the spotlight. The only thing that stands out about Lowe is how low his home run total is when you consider he posted an above-average barrel rate of 9.5 percent and a max out velocity of 113.9.
The problem was the insane 55% GB% level. We know that ground ball rate is somewhat sticky, but it’s not crazy at all to see major changes in a player’s batted ball profile from year to year. That makes Lowe a guy who could flirt with 25 homers if he can get a few more balls in the air. What we have here is a late-round first baseman who does a bit of everything, and I think there’s an unrealized ceiling here as well. In the on-base percentage leagues, he’s a great value you can get after picking 225, and he’s only 26. Sign me up for some Nate Lowe this year.
— Jon Anderson – Roto Baller
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